Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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315 FXUS62 KTBW 261803 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 203 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Now Category 2 Hurricane Helene remains the dominant feature for our weather through tomorrow. Helene is centered in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to rapidly strengthen through today as the storm moves north to northeast with an increasing forward speed, eventually making landfall in the Florida Big Bend Region. Widespread impacts are expected across West-Central and Southwest Florida beginning early today and lasting through Friday morning. * Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is expected today into Friday. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Elevated water levels are possible through Friday. * Flooding Rain - Flooding rain threat will run from today through this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches possible. Even after Helene pulls away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend. * Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be possible today and tonight with the highest probabilities along the coast. * Tornadoes - Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 As Helene starts pulling away on Friday winds will remain out of the southwest and stay breezy at least through the morning hours. The moisture axis will shift mainly to southwest Florida giving them the best chance of rain throughout the day. That axis of moisture does lift north for the weekend and early next weekend. This will result in PWs staying around 2 to 2.5 inches for much of our CWA resulting in scattered to widespread showers throughout the the afternoon and evening hours each day. We will see moisture decreasing starting on Tuesday and Wednesday which will result in lower rain chances across the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Winds continue to increase across the area with heavy rain expected to move back in this afternoon. This system will bring MVFR and occasional IFR conditions into tonight. Gusty south- southeast winds of 25 to 35 knots this afternoon will continue to turn southerly and eventually southwesterly later tonight. Wind gusts will also increase to 45 to 60 kts in some of the stronger rainbands this afternoon/evening. Winds will begin diminishing and conditions will begin to improve by 02/03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Dangerous and life threatening boating conditions will continue for our waterways today as Hurricane Helene continues to push through the Gulf of Mexico. Currently we have tropical storm and hurricane warning throughout our zones. Helene will push into the Big Bend area tonight. After that winds will stay out of the southwest but we will still see dangerous boating conditions through the morning hours before winds slowly subside throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain south to southwest through the weekend and Monday with speed between 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hurricane Helene will keep winds and wet conditions in place through Friday. After that southwesterly winds will keep moisture on the higher side through the weekend and early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 80 89 79 / 100 100 10 20 FMY 86 78 88 79 / 80 80 60 70 GIF 87 78 89 77 / 90 80 20 30 SRQ 88 81 89 79 / 100 100 20 40 BKV 86 78 89 74 / 100 100 10 10 SPG 86 81 88 82 / 100 100 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk- Sumter. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco- Pinellas. Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce