Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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909 FXUS63 KTOP 251939 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues with near or slightly above normal temperatures into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Upper trough axis extends from Ontario southward through the Great Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley, leaving us on the subsident side of the system today with sfc high pressure dominating across the Plains. At the mid/upper levels, ridging holds strong over the Rockies and High Plains. Hurricane Helene is just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the southeastern Gulf as of 19Z. The upper ridge is progged to flatten and retrograde westward in the next couple of days as the hurricane makes landfall and eventually interacts with the upper low to our east. Models have continued to trend east with any precipitation associated with those interacting systems, and as such we now have a dry forecast going forward for the next several days. We could see some high clouds Friday and Saturday, which looks to be the extent of what we see from the tropical system. Temperatures hold steady with lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through Monday. The next noteworthy system to impact the local area comes as a low- amplitude Pacific trough sweeps across the Northern Plains and drags a cold front across the area in the Monday to Monday night time frame. This looks to pass through dry at this time followed by a slight cool-down on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions continue. Light north winds today will become variable overnight under a clear sky. Can`t completely rule out some shallow ground fog in the river valley around sunrise, mainly impacting TOP, but confidence isn`t high enough to include in the TAF at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha