532
FXUS63 KTOP 261106
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog burns off with sunrise this morning.

- Dry weather continues with near to slightly above normal
  temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Early this morning, a mid-level ridge stretched from the Desert
Southwest to the Northern Plains with a stagnant closed low
spinning over the mid-Mississippi Valley. While the main
weather focus is on Hurricane Helene as it intensifies in the
Gulf, benign weather continues across the forecast area with
the aforementioned ridge in place. Clear skies and calm surface
winds have allowed for some patchy fog to develop, mainly in
river valleys and low-lying areas. This fog will burn off
shortly after sunrise with a carbon-copy of yesterday expected
today. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s.

As Helene tracks north, it will be ingested by the closed low over
the lower Mississippi Valley and nudge the ridge back towards the
Four Corners. While some mid and high clouds are likely to
overspread the area from this system, any precipitation will
stay to our east. Little change to the overall airmass will
take place through Monday, keeping temperatures slightly above
normal with highs in the 80s. A shortwave diving southeast
across the northern CONUS into the Great Lakes will shunt a cold
front through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Frontal
passage is expected to be dry given a lack of moisture, but
temperatures will be knocked down 10-15 degrees on Tuesday. The
cool down is short-lived as southerly flow returns on Wednesday
and temperatures rise back to near-normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Shallow fog at KTOP burns off over the next hour or two with VFR
conditions expected afterwards. Winds remain light from the ESE
through the day, becoming variable this evening and overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan