Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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718 FXUS64 KTSA 240239 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 939 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Vast majority of precip has now dissipated or moved east of the area with just some very light rain/ drizzle being reported across parts of far NE OK/ NW AR. Have reduced PoPs accordingly with a dry forecast overnight. Given recent rainfall, small T/Td spreads, clearing skies, and light winds... at least patchy fog is expected to develop across the CWA late this evening and overnight. A corridor of more concentrated dense fog potential is expected across far NE OK & NW AR, as well as S-central OK (primarily in areas which received the most rain recently). As a result, have expanded fog coverage across the entire CWA tonight with mention of dense fog in the aforementioned higher potential areas. A Dense Fog Advisory will probably be required at some point tonight for these areas, and will be monitoring trends late this evening/ early overnight to determine locations most likely to be impacted. Aside from edits to PoPs & fog potential mentioned above, the current forecast is tracking well with no significant changes necessary at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Remainder of Today and Tonight) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers continue to linger across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave moves across the region. This activity is expected to exit the area to the east this evening. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out during this time. A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy fog possible across much of the area. The greatest concentration of fog is expected across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy fog is forecast to persist into mid-morning Tuesday before dissipating. Most of Tuesday is forecast to be dry with the chances of showers/storms returning Tuesday night as the next upperlevel shortwave dives into the Mid-Mississippi Valley while intensifying Shower/storm chances continue mid-week as the upper level low spins over the Mississippi Valley. The forecast for late week into the weekend is more complicated and is highly dependent on the interaction of PTC 9 and the aforementioned upper level low. As of right now, the highest potential for showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will come on Friday as tropical moisture interacts with the Mississippi Valley upper level low. Locally heavy rains will be a concern. This will be especially true across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The chances of showers/storms decrease Saturday into Sunday as the storm system begins to exit to the northeast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Low clouds persist across much of E OK/NW AR late this afternoon with clearing line currently west of Highway 75. Skies are expected to clear from northwest to southeast overnight with the potential for dense fog. Some areas could see more widespread dense fog especially across northwest Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma. LIFR conditions are likely in these areas given the recent rainfall, current reduced temp/dew- point spreads, coupled with lows tonight forecast several degrees below crossover temperatures/dew-points. MOS guidance is currently not as aggressive with denser fog development across NE OK and for now will stay with TEMPO MVFR visibilities. The fog is expected to lift by mid morning with VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 57 81 57 80 / 0 10 20 10 FSM 63 84 61 83 / 10 0 40 10 MLC 58 84 58 83 / 0 10 50 10 BVO 53 80 52 82 / 0 10 10 10 FYV 58 78 54 79 / 10 10 20 20 BYV 59 76 55 78 / 20 10 10 20 MKO 56 79 57 80 / 0 10 30 10 MIO 56 76 53 78 / 0 10 10 10 F10 54 81 56 80 / 0 10 30 10 HHW 61 86 61 83 / 0 0 40 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...12