975
FXUS64 KTSA 271108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Mid and upper-level cloud cover will increase later this morning
and spread east-to-west today as remnants from tropical cyclone
Helene get absorbed by an upper-level cut-off low, currently
centered over Memphis, TN. As tropical moisture gets ingested into
the upper-low, rain chances will increase for portions of northwest
AR late this morning and into this afternoon. But despite the
increase in tropical moisture, consensus in deterministic models
and ensembles continue to trend precipitation chances and rainfall
amounts lower today. Kept the highest PoPs (optimistically around
30-40%) across Carroll, Madison, and Franklin counties in AR, but
PoPs may need to be adjusted lower if model/ensemble trends
continue to lower. Overall, rainfall amounts should remain light
and generally around a tenth of an inch or less where rain does
fall.

Although hazardous weather is not anticipated today, northerly
winds will become breezy across northwest AR and much of eastern
OK by mid-late morning. Sustained winds 15-20 mph are likely,
with occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible this afternoon
through sunset. Gusts up to 35 mph may be more frequent over the
higher terrain in northwest AR. High temperatures will rise into
the low-mid 80s across eastern OK and west-central AR. Persistent
cloud cover and rain chances will keep much of far northwestern AR
temperatures in the mid-upper 70s this afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Lingering rain chances (15-30%) early this evening will be ending
across northwest AR before midnight tonight as an upper-level
cut-off low shifts eastward over western KY and mid-level dry air
advects over the region. Rain chances look very minimal through
the remainder of the forecast period as mid/upper-level ridging
dominates over the Southern Plains well into next week. Guidance
continues to indicate a weak, dry cold front moving through the
forecast area during the daytime Tuesday. The front will lower
temperatures and dewpoint temperatures a few degrees, compared to
previous days, through Wednesday. Effects of the weak cold front
appear to be short-lived as southerly winds return by Wednesday
afternoon and temperatures will rebound above seasonal average
into the latter half of the workweek next week. Hazardous weather
is not expected through the long-term period at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. North
winds will gust over 20 knots at times today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   82  64  83  64 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   84  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   78  58  80  58 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   74  60  78  60 /  40  20   0   0
MKO   82  61  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
F10   83  59  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05