Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
685 FXUS65 KTWC 260901 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 201 AM MST Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures are expected through the coming weekend. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday when an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Tucson westward. && .DISCUSSION... An anomalous high pressure center is currently located over eastern Arizona/ western New Mexico and is expected to persist in the region for, at least, the next several days. This will lead to near-record and possibly record high temperatures that are 7 to 15 degrees above normal. The hottest days will be Friday and Saturday with forecast highs in Tucson being 106 and 107 degrees, respectfully. Area wide, high temperatures will be between 100 to 111 degrees. Since there is little overnight recovery, HeatRisk is forecast to be Major to locally Extreme; meaning that this level of heat will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The Excessive Heat Warning is still in effect for areas Tucson westward for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Other than extreme heat, today will be mostly clear skies with some scattered mid-level clouds and winds around 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph from the southeast. && .AVIATION... Valid through 27/12Z. FEW clouds focused east of KTUS at 9k-12k feet through 26/18Z becoming more widespread and FEW-SCT by 26/22Z. Clouds will dissipate by 27/05Z becoming SKC for the remainder of the forecast period. Surface winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts until 26/23Z becoming light, 5 kts or less, and variable for the remainder of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and hot temperatures this week. Temperatures will be 7 to 14 degrees above normal through Today, peaking at 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. 20- foot winds east to southeast around 10 mph today from Tucson eastward with a few higher gusts. Otherwise, 20-foot winds generally less than 10 mph with an easterly component through the weekend. Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations. && .CLIMATE... RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS DATE Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep 28 FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 105 104/2023 107 103/2023 106 103/1994 AJO 106 106/2023 110 106/1960 111 106/2020 KITT PEAK 87 85/1979 90 84/2005 91 84/2009 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 105 107/1956 109 107/1994 110 107/1992 PICACHO PEAK 104 106/2020 106 105/2022 108 104/2009 SAFFORD AG STATION 100 99/2020 102 100/2005 101 100/2005 SIERRA VISTA FD 95 95/2020 96 96/2023 96 95/2023 TOMBSTONE 95 96/2020 97 99/1942 96 98/1917 WILLCOX 95 100/1915 98 98/1956 96 98/1956 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502-504-505. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson