Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280527
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A fairly typical late March weather pattern will continue through
the end of the month with periodic breezy to windy conditions
while temperatures commonly reach within a few degrees of normal.
A few showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible through the
early evening in far northeastern New Mexico, but into Thursday,
Friday and Saturday dry conditions are expected to prevail. In
addition to the dry conditions, areas of low humidity will also
develop, especially in portions of central and much of eastern New
Mexico, where gusty conditions will combine to create critical
fire weather and the potential for rapid fire spread, especially
on Friday and Saturday. Winds increase more on Sunday with
occasional gusts of 40 to 50 mph becoming more common over central
and eastern New Mexico, and this will lead to areas of blowing
dust and likely more critical fire weather. Some showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop over the far western tier of the state
on Sunday, and areas of rain and snow will slowly try to expand
into central areas of New Mexico by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Gusty winds under northwest flow aloft continues this afternoon.
These winds should wane after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating/mixing. A few showers and thunderstorms across
northeast/east central NM will continue to move into the OK and TX
Panhandles this afternoon. A few sprinkles may linger in the area
after 6pm, but no impacts are expected. Thereafter, a quiet but cool
night is expected. Weak ridging will move in late tonight and
continue through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm to
within 5 degrees of normal Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly breezes
will increase in the afternoon, especially across eastern NM where
gusts between 20 and 35 mph are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

West southwest flow aloft will prevail on Friday with speeds
staying fairly strong (25-35 kt at 700 mb). A lee-side surface low
will develop near the northeast corner of NM, and rising
temperatures will only deepen the boundary layer and vertical
mixing. This will lead to more widespread breezy to windy
conditions Friday afternoon, especially near high terrain areas
such as the Chuskas, Zunis, Sangre de Cristos and surrounding
highlands and high plains.

An eastern Pacific low will drop farther south on Saturday,
staying offshore of CA. This will cause the upper level flow to
back more southwesterly over NM while strengthening very slightly.
Another lee-side surface trough will also redevelop, broadening
over mover of eastern CO and NM, and windy conditions at the
surface will expand over more central and western highlands
Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, dry and warm conditions (near to
slightly above average) will persist.

Into Sunday, the upper low will swing eastward toward the
southern border of CA, drawing in stronger southwesterlies into NM
with 700 mb speeds reaching a 35 to 50 kt range while the lee-
side surface cyclone deepens another 4 to 5 mb. Surface gusts of
40 to 50 mph would expand from southwestern zones across the
central mountain chain and into the northeast highlands and high
plains with blowing dust likely getting activated from vulnerable
source regions. There will be enough large scale ascent with
approaching low that western zones will begin to see showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms develop Sunday.

The low will then fill in considerably on Monday, crossing AZ and
NM as a broad upper trough while a more northern stream low
crosses the central plains of KS/NE. This will spread forcing for
showers and storms into more central zones while cooler air
accompanies. Northeastern NM zones will even have a backdoor
segment of the front to contend with where surface/moisture
convergence will assist shower and storm production on Monday.
The low will keep a very strong negative tilt to it as the axis
slides farther east on Tuesday, introducing a significant
meridional component to the flow aloft over NM. This will keep
convective showers and weak storms going, mainly over the
interior high terrain of NM while inhibiting any appreciable
warming. By Wednesday, the trough axis should be far removed
enough with lighter veering flow that should allow drier, warmer
and more tranquil conditions to return to NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Southwest winds ramp
up with gusts of up to 35 kts for eastern TAF sites beginning 3/27
17Z and gusts of 25 to 30 kts for western and central TAF sites
beginning 19 to 21Z. Winds taper off to around 10 kts after
sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Gusty northwest winds will decrease with sunset this evening, but
several rounds of gusty winds will create fire weather concerns over
the next several days. West to southwest winds will be on the
upswing on Thursday, especially across eastern NM as a lee side
trough deepens. 1 to 3 hours of critical conditions are possible
across Harding, San Miguel and Quay counties. Winds will increase
further on Friday, and critical fire weather concerns increase for
eastern NM with RH values dropping below 15% for most of the area. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the area, though Haines
values remain quite low. As the next storm system dives southward
along the CA coast, southwest flow over NM will continue to
increase. Much like Friday, critical fire weather concerns are
expected for much of eastern NM and potentially the Rio Grande
Valley as well. Wind speeds look to be the strongest on Sunday but
moisture will be increasing from the west. Nonetheless, it seems
there potential for critical conditions across at least the eastern
tier of the state. Starting late Sunday afternoon, precipitation
will begin across western NM before spreading eastward Sunday
night and Monday. Western and central areas stand the best chance
at wetting precipitation, with snow generally above 6000-6500
feet. Precipitation may linger into Tuesday before diminishing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  28  65  36 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  19  58  31 /  10   0   0   5
Cuba............................  46  24  59  32 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  52  22  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  24  59  30 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  20  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  48  23  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  31  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  45  26  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  56  23  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  42  18  51  28 /  10   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  46  30  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  47  26  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  40  26  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  39  15  47  27 /  20   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  12  47  28 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  46  18  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  44  22  57  33 /  20   0   0   0
Espanola........................  53  26  64  34 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  48  27  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  53  25  62  34 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  34  65  44 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  33  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  31  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  32  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  60  28  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  31  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  28  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  31  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  29  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  50  31  63  41 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  32  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  30  58  39 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  31  61  39 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  27  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  22  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  25  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  51  28  61  38 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  28  61  38 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  34  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  31  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  20  61  32 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  51  20  64  31 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  53  20  65  31 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  23  62  36 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  27  67  38 /  10   5   0   0
Roy.............................  51  25  66  38 /  20   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  57  29  73  41 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  58  30  71  40 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  30  72  40 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  31  71  41 /  20   5   0   0
Portales........................  64  29  73  40 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  29  71  41 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  67  34  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  59  32  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  56  31  69  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ104-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71


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