Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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480
FXUS63 KABR 191536 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1036 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Some patchy fog has all but burned off this morning under sunny
skies. Guidance has been underdoing temps for those without snow
cover recently, so minor adjustments to highs for this afternoon
have been made accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

An upper ridge and sfc high pressure over the region will bring some
warmer temperatures and dry conditions today. That said, highs will
still be below normal for mid to late April as they top out in the
40s to the south and in the mid 50s north. Any lingering snow will
quickly melt, so some of those southern locations may pop a bit
higher than forecast if bare ground is achieved. Average highs this
time of year are in the 60s.

On Thursday night, the area will be sandwiched between the exiting
sfc high and a low moving off the Rockies and into the Plains.
Southerly flow ahead of the low will keep temps from bottoming out,
but lows will still fall into the 20s and 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Initially the upper pattern features a broad upper ridge with a
cutoff low tracking across the 4-corners region towards the central
plains. We still appear to be on the northern extreme of any
clouds/rain with this system. The flow becomes more complicated with
a series of northern stream waves coming on shore during the weekend
and tracking in the northern plains to start the work week. The
different deterministic models have a better handle on this systems
evolution compared to 24 hours ago, with a progressive, initially
open wave that deepens and closes to our east (but also remains
progressive).

As for temperatures, a cool airmass is in place initially with 850mb
temperatures only around +1 to +3C. Sunday features a setup for
favorable mixing with south/southwest winds ahead of the
aforementioned upper trough/closed low. After the initial warm
advection, a weak front/limited cold advection airmass follows to
start the upcoming work week. After that, confidence in temperature
forecasts diminish and thus will stick with blended guidance
temperatures initially for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lueck
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly/Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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