Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270555 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Surface ridge axis overhead with a light westerly component across
the eastern CWA and better mixing/low dewpoints while we have
southeast winds across the west, with a little less heat and higher
dewpoints.  Overnight this feature continues east, and thus milder
readings overnight with a touch of humidity. A low level jet of 40
to 50kts will also set up over mainly central South Dakota, nosing
into the James valley. The low level jet and mid level warm
advection will bring us a chance for elevated convection. MUCAPE is
only about 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear about 30kts so the severe
weather threat is limited.

Sunday will be hot once again, with BUFKIT profiles showing a touch
warmer/drier layer above the morning inversion, with 850mb
temperatures starting out anywhere from 2-4C warmer compared to that
time Saturday. Mixed winds will run around 20 to 30kts but in WAA
this is a less efficient process - but winds will still be gusty.
Any moisture in the profiles is above 15kft and focused west
river so dry conditions will be the rule. A slight southwest
component will also give a minor boost to temps, and guidance
highs in the James valley and off the Buffalo ridge are close to
100. Readings will be warm but not quite so extreme for the
Missouri valley west thanks to the expectation for some high
clouds despite the core of warmest air being overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Still appears as if it will get more active as we head into next
week. An upper trof over the Great Basin will lift northeast into
the region gradually through mid week. Ahead of the mid level
trof, a plume of quite warm air aloft will advect across the
region, potentially capping any convection through Sunday night,
particularly over northeast South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. MLCIN remains quite high over this area through Sunday
night. But, by Monday afternoon and night, cooling aloft will
ensue as the trof moves east and heights begin falling. The
surface front will also begin to shift east at the same time. It
still appears that Monday aftn/night into Tuesday will feature the
best opportunity for measurable rain across the forecast area as
the sfc front interacts with increasing LLM/instability. Severe
concerns remain, but, that said, deep layer shear looks to be
quite marginal. Temperatures will favor above normal for the
entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Sunday. Will have to watch for the development of some
thunderstorms early this morning possibly affecting the airports.
Thunderstorm development is again expected this evening out west and
may affect the PIR and MBG locations. LLWS will also be an issue for
several locations.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr


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