Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
421
FXUS63 KABR 250236 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
936 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

There`s still a boundary (cool front?) working through the eastern
half of the forecast area. There is still at least 2000j/kg MUCAPE
over the CWA. There are still a couple of upper level speed maxes
over the region. The boundary layer is beginning to stabilize over
this cwa, though. And any sort of low level jet remaining over the
cwa (far eastern zones) is veering and pointing forcing/focus
east and north of this cwa. Leaving in the very low pops for
showers/thunderstorms over the next couple of hours, but took out
any T+ severe wording. Seems like precipitation chances are pretty
much done for the night. No other changes planned to the tonight
period forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Diurnal cumulus clouds have developed across portions of eastern SD
and western MN as the pre-frontal air mass in which they reside
continues to destabilize. This front could become an area of
focus for thunderstorm development by the early evening, as the
right entrance region of a 70kt jet streak continues northeast
towards the area. However confidence has decreased in overall
coverage of storms, and thus POPs have been lowered accordingly.
That said, a favorable environment for severe weather,
particularly damaging winds, is in place for storms that do fire.
Steep low and mid-level lapse rates, SBCAPE generally between
2000-3000 J/kg, dry air at the mid levels and inverted-V
soundings, as well as DCAPE above 1200 J/kg would help contribute
to severe- level wind gusts. Thanks in part to marginal deep-layer
shear, storms may not be organized enough for particularly large
hail, but large hail is still a concern. A few storms may last
into tonight before they move out of the CWA/the environment
becomes less favorable.

Another warm day is in store for the area on Friday, with high temps
in the upper 80s and lower 90s thanks to an incoming ridge. Dry
weather with mostly sunny skies is also expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A fairly strong upper level ridge will build over the central part
of the country Friday night, then will remain dominant over the area
through the day Monday. Shortwave energy will eject northeastward
from a western U.S. low Monday night, with the main shortwave trough
tracking across the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Weak ridging builds
back in Wednesday and Thursday.

At the surface, weak high pressure will be in place Friday night and
Saturday, keeping conditions dry. Southerly flow develops Saturday
night as the high pushes east and low pressure approaches from the
west. Scattered showers and storms may develop in this area Saturday
night, aided by a 40-50 knot low level jet. Warming aloft should
result in a capped atmosphere on Sunday, then will see off and on
chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through the day
Wednesday as the surface low/boundary moves over the region and
basically stalls there. The system finally pushes east Wednesday
night into Thursday, bringing cooler conditions and lesser chances
for precipitation.

Under the influence of the upper ridge, high temperatures will be in
the lower to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday. Will then see a gradual
cooling trend, with mid to upper 80s Monday, lower to mid 80s
Tuesday, and upper 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The possible
exception would be during thunderstorms if they manage to
develop/move over the ATY terminal through late this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.