Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251147 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mostly clear skies and light winds early this morning as a surface
ridge is in place. Latest satellite imagery shows hints of fog along
the Missouri River across Lyman/Buffalo counties, so have included a
mention of patchy up through sunrise. Anything that does develop
should quickly dissipate after the sun comes up.

For later today, looking at increasing southwest winds as the
surface high moves south. Will also see 925/850 mb temps on the
increase, with good mixing winds within a dry air mass. The stage is
set for good warming today, and went above most guidance in regards
to temperatures. Soundings also suggest we could mix down some drier
air aloft, and it would appear today is one of those days where we
could end up with lower dewpoints/RH than expected. This would be a
slam dunk case in a prolonged dry/drought pattern, but with our
wetter pattern recently, and the fact that Mobridge received nearly
an inch of rain yesterday, wonder if the results will be a bit
different. Nonetheless, did lower dewpoints a bit from blended/MOS
guidance. Interesting to note that some of the hi-res models are
even lower than forecast over north central SD, but feel they are
probably a dry bias. Current forecast RH actually falls to around 20
percent over north central SD, with wind gusts around 25 mph.
Borderline red flag conditions, but consensus amongst neighbors was
to hold off on headlines and convey heightened fire danger in other
products/social media. Confidence in just how low dewpoints will get
is low, given the recent wet pattern and yesterday`s rainfall. If
conditions appear they will reach criteria by early/mid afternoon, a
fire weather headline may be needed.

Looking towards tonight, a cold front will be sweeping across the
region, with gusty northerly winds in its wake. Increased wind
speeds a bit overnight as some models are suggesting some rather
gusty winds immediately post-frontal. It also appears we will have
some enhanced downslope winds for a bit tonight as well, but nothing
too major. Followed hi-res guidance in the Sisseton Hills/Coteau
region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The models continue to show the upper level flow pattern bringing
mainly dry and above normal temperatures through most of the period.
The period begins on Thursday with the only below normal temperature
day across the cwa with breezy/windy northwest winds behind an
exiting upper level low pressure trough. The models then show a
sharp upper level high pressure ridge over the western U.S.
progressing slowly east and into our region into the weekend while a
large upper level low pressure area moves into the southwest U.S.
After a mid 50s to the lower 60s below normal day on Thursday, above
normal temperatures will return for Friday and continue to warm into
the weekend as there will be plenty of sunshine under the high
pressure ridge moving in. Increased high temperatures for Friday
through Sunday with maybe some 80 degree readings on Sunday and even
Monday. The models show some short wave energy kicking out of the
southwest low pressure area for Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday
maybe bringing us some chances of showers and storms. At this time,
have a few slight chance/chances in for this time period. Otherwise,
it does look like it will cool down as a surface boundary pushes
through Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

KATY will see a brief period of MVFR visibility this morning in
BR. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
forecast period. Southwest surface winds today will switch to the
northwest between 06Z and 12Z tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TMT


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