Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260051 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
751 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and blowing snow will continue tonight into Tuesday for the Prairie
  Coteau and western MN. Further west the wind and snow will be
  subsiding although some drifting may still occur.

- Cold temperatures will persist through the week, averaging near
  to below normal. Precipitation chances will increase again
  toward next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The potential for quarter mile or less visibility in
falling/blowing snow has subsided in Lyman/Buffalo counties. But,
20 to 30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph will still be possible for
several more hours, and this could result in areas of
blowing/drifting snow when combined with any remaining pockets of
light snowfall across south central South Dakota. The rest of the
forecast/headlines remain as is for now. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A split-flow setup aloft continues over the CONUS at the beginning
of the period. Northern stream energy/trof is located across central
Canada, with the southern stream energy ejecting northeast across
the Central/Southern Plains. This energy will continue to bring
light to moderate snow to the eastern CWA into the overnight hours.
Additional accumulations are expected, which when combined with the
gusty winds begs for some continued blowing/drifting snow over the
region. Will maintain current headlines of warning east given
forecast expectations. A northern stream s/w does shove the main
system lifting out of the south to our east on Tuesday, taking pcpn
chances with it, but maintaining gusty winds over eastern South
Dakota. Things really start to calm down Tuesday night as sfc high
settles in over the area. Cold temperatures of course will be
maintained for the foreseeable future.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The period starts off with upper troffing over the middle part of
the CONUS, and ridging just inland of the west coast. The entire
ridge/trof pattern is expected to gradually progress east with time,
and by the end of the week broad ridging should cover the Northern
Plains. Over the weekend and into early next week, some energy does
slide across southern Canada/northern CONUS, thus pushing down the
ridge to some degree. The deterministic solutions are more diggy
with the feature vs the ensemble means. A couple of systems may slide
through the ridge during the period. The first being around Friday,
and the next late in the weekend/early next week. Forecast
confidence is average, but that said probs of at least measurable
pcpn are pretty high Sunday into Monday. Temperatures look to remain
near or below normal for much of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KPIR/KMBG are VFR (KMBG is sky clear) and should remain that way
through the TAF period, although over the next 6 hours or so,
mainly ground level blowing/drifting snow will persist.

KABR/KATY are both MVFR (cigs), but KATY is forecast to drop into
an IFR cig, including some light snowfall potential, overnight
(the precipitation down over northwest Iowa and southeast South
Dakota which short range guidance suggests will work up along/east
of I-29). Blowing and drifting snow, in tandem with falling snow,
could cause visibility reductions to 1 to 3 miles. KABR has
probably seen the last of any falling snow, but mainly ground
level blowing/drifting will continue overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ005-010-
     017-036-037-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ006-018.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Dorn


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