Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Main forecast concern is the continuation of the storm system
currently affecting parts of the area. As far as the Aberdeen CWA
goes, the precipitation has remained mainly in the form of freezing
rain and sleet just over the southwestern portion of the area, with
little to no snow. Currently watching a band of precipitation
wrapping around the north side of the low into southern South
Dakota. It appears that the precipitation associated with this band
has begun to turn to snow, so anticipate the freezing rain will come
to an end as this band approaches. Question then becomes how long
the precipitation remains, as there is pretty good model agreement
that the precipitation will begin to fizzle out this evening and
come to an end by midnight or so. Will bank on this happening for
now and will adjust the forecast accordingly. Tough call as far as
headlines are concerned since conditions are likely hazardous in the
areas where the precipitation has been occurring, so am leaning
toward leaving them in place into the evening.

The system exits the area late tonight as high pressure moves in,
resulting in dry conditions on Saturday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper teens to lower 20s,
with highs on Saturday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The long term remains somewhat active, with a continued semi-
progressive mid level pattern across the CONUS. The main system
early in the period is expected to propagate across the region
Sunday through Monday. In what appears to be a somewhat chaotic
split flow, the main mid level low is expected to track across the
Central/Southern Plains. However, some energy gets kicked north into
the western Dakotas on Sunday, and then tracks slowly east over the
area once it gets picked up by an advancing northern stream trof.
Saturation with this system looks decent from sfc-H5, but UVM is
somewhat sporadic and therefore of low confidence. Model blend
came in with fairly low pcpn amounts, so that looks okay. Warm air
aloft will provide for a likely mixture of pcpn types Sunday and
Sunday night, with mostly just snow for Monday. An upper ridge
then builds across the region, with dry weather expected, until
toward the end of the period. Temperatures are anticipated to
average out near to below normal until late next week when they
should turn warmer.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

KPIR region should see a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys this afternoon
and early evening as precipitation moves back into the region.
FZRA early should gradually change over to sleet/snow. FZDZ is
possible this evening and overnight. The other terminals may
experience patchy fog and MVFR cigs later today and tonight.


SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
     for SDZ015-034.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ036-037.



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