Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050913
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeast winds, gusting to 40+ mph, starting late this morning
  across central South Dakota, then expanding across the CWA
  Saturday and Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect today for
  central South Dakota.

- Elevated fire danger across the eastern CWA Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday evening. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

- On and off rain showers are expected Saturday through Monday. The
  chance of rainfall exceeding a quarter inch is high (60-95%)
  across the region. The chances of exceeding a half inch are more
  limited to western/south central South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

An upper level ridge will be over the central part of the country
today. This ridge will get pushed east tonight as a strong trough
tracks from the west coast to the Rockies. The main low with the
trough will be accompanied by some fairly strong shortwave energy as
it begins to swing over the Central Plains on Saturday. The
strongest energy during the day looks to only reach Nebraska, but
some leading energy will reach the western half of South Dakota.

At the surface, the region be between high pressure to the east and
low pressure over the Rockies today. Will see a fairly tight
pressure gradient develop over the western half of South Dakota,
with southeasterly winds gusting in excess of 40 mph at times from
late this morning through the evening hours. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for this time period for central South Dakota. The
gradient remains tight as the low to the west reaches the western
high plains tonight. Windy conditions will continue tonight, but
right now look to diminish enough to remain below advisory criteria.
The low to the west will swing from eastern Colorado to western
Nebraska on Saturday. Will see rain spread over the western half of
South Dakota, especially during the afternoon hours. Winds will
again be pretty strong, especially across the eastern CWA where
southeasterly winds will gust in excess of 45 mph. With the rain not
reaching that area, relative humidity values will be somewhat low
(30 to 35 percent). These low humidity values combined with the
strong winds will result in very high to extreme fire danger.
Therefore, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon
and evening from the James River Valley eastward.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs on
Saturday will be in the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

An omega block will be situated over eastern two thirds of the CONUS
through the weekend and into early next week. By nature, this block
will be very slow to move eastward. The western low of the low-high-
low block will very slowly move over our area on Sunday and linger
nearly into Tuesday. The stacked system appears to be able to pull
gulf moisture. Forcing Saturday night is initially strong with well
coupled frontogenesis and upper level forcing. The pressure gradient
also remains very tight with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
continuing through the day Sunday. However, almost all models show
the system weakening with streams of dry air rotating around the low
later Sunday through Monday. This will probably lend to more on-and-
off shower activity versus widespread persistent rain through the
time frame. Blended model guidance probability of precipitation
exceeding 0.25" is quite high (60-95%) across the region. However,
probability of exceeding an inch drops to less than 20% for all
areas. P-type is predominately rain, although a rain-snow mix is
possible as cooler air gets mixed in on the backside of the low
pressure system. Chances of measurable snowfall are quite low, with
the current ensemble 90th percentile generally not exceeding 0.5"
for any particular location.

The low pressure system finally exits and a more progressive pattern
returns by the second half of the work week. Temperatures return to
above normal and mainly dry conditions are expected. That said,
while there is no model consensus at this point, they do all show
weak waves of energy which could bring brief, light precip to the
region during the later half of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty southeast
surface winds will materialize by Friday afternoon, especially over
KPIR/KMBG where gusts are likely to exceed 30 knots. LLWS (low-level
wind shear) is also forecast at KPIR towards the end of the period.
Included mention of this in the TAF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-
     033>035-045-048.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     SDZ003-015.

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Parkin


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