Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180745
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
245 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

With temperatures still above freezing in most of the Missouri River
valley, snow has struggled to accumulate. Decided to cancel the
advisory as totals are expected to max out around 2.5 inches. The
one spot that may see a bit more is Murdo where cameras show snow is
already sticking on pavement. Radar also shows a more enhanced band
directly over and just to the east of Murdo. Precip has yet to begin
in Pierre, even though radar would indicate otherwise.

Temperatures will rebound quickly on Wednesday. As precipitation
rotates in on an inverted trough, it will lose some forcing through
the morning. Reduced rates will lead to lower potential
accumulations as will rising temperatures. Highs will climb into the
40s with portions of north central SD jumping into the lower 50s
after clouds start to break up in the afternoon.

Sfc high pressure and upper ridging build in Wednesday night.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Looks like with the limited snow accumulations with the current
system we can go forwards with a slightly warmer forecast in the mid
term timeframe as guidance has come in a little milder Thursday &
Friday. The only notable weather features are an upper low that
tracks mainly south of the CWA for the weekend, and in which the
GFS/Canadian and ECMWF all bring some moisture this far north.
Profiles support mainly light rain. There is another system for the
start of next week, however there is a wide array of outcomes
between deterministic guidance and POPs are probably overdone. This
is because the Canadian (which is an outlier) leaves an upper low
sitting over the area while the GFS is far more progressive and the
ECMWF deflects a weak wave to the south. Also noted is much warmer
air in this round of blended extended guidance for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

An upper level trough will enhance rain and snow chances across
portions of central/north central South Dakota. KPIR/KMBG stand the
highest probability of seeing some precipitation between now and 18Z
Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions should develop at KPIR before 12Z
Wednesday. KMBG could be down into some sub-VFR conditions, as well,
between now and 18Z. KABR/KATY could end up staying VFR for the
entire TAF valid period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise



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