Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141728 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Current forecast is on track this morning, therefore no changes
made at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Tranquil weather conditions will continue through the short term
portion of the forecast. While a back-door cold front will move
across the CWA this afternoon, temperatures will warm into the 30s
and 40s. Due to no snow cover, highs in the 50s are expected in
south central SD.

An area of low pressure approaching the region from the southwest
will bring easterly winds to the CWA tonight. Low level moisture
from snow melt today, could combine with the easterly winds to
produce fog over the higher terrain areas in western South Dakota.
Since fog formation has been difficult the past few nights, will
leave out fog for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The main forecast challenge in the early part of the extended
involves the system approaching the region on Thu night/Fri. GFS
operational run remains the wettest solution, while the GEFS plumes
indicate lesser snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range for areas
across south central SD. The ECMWF maintains a more southern track,
keeping Aberdeen and other northeastern areas dry. As the system
rolls into the Plains Thursday night, temperatures will be cool
enough at the sfc to support some freezing rain along and south of I-
90 before the temps rise and precip becomes rain or a mix of rain
and snow by Friday afternoon. By late Fri afternoon, the DGZ will
begin to lose some moisture and freezing drizzle will become more
of a concern. Overall, a good bit of the area could see some
light ice accumulations from freezing drizzle Friday evening
before the system exits, but this is largely dependent on just how
far north the precip spreads in the first place. A lot of
uncertainty still exists regarding placement of the low and the
northern extent of precip potential.

Another low will affect the region Sun night and Monday.
Temperatures will be warm enough to support a mix of rain and snow
during the day even though most areas will see below normal highs
through the period. Once the snow pack is gone, we will see temps
nudge toward average or even slightly above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Other than the potential for some MVFR vsbys due to fog late
tonight into early Thursday morning, VFR conditions will prevail
across the area through midday Thursday.




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