Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201717 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1217 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 940 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Made a few updates to PoPs to grab latest radar trends, otherwise
forecast appears on track.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The snow line extends from Aberdeen to Miller and continues to
slowly progress east through the morning hours while weakening,
though possibly lingering into western Minnesota into the early
afternoon. In its wake we will see stratus up to around 3kft which
is traditionally just shy of what is necessary for drizzle, so
expect low clouds and fog as well, though we can see some decent
breaks in central South Dakota developing which will lead to heating
and melting. Even with clouds, mid March sun and a starting point in
the low 30s means most locations will warm above freezing. A
secondary wave drops across the Dakotas today, with a brief period
of lift enough to generate snow showers with mid level lapse rates
around 8 C/KM. The status layer may thicken up behind this feature
as well, leading to some drizzle for the first half of the overnight
hours. With the snow melting/saturated boundary layer and limited
heating, expect additional fog to develop tonight/Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The models agree well and have been consistent early on in the long
term with an upper level high pressure ridge out west on Wednesday
building east across our region through Thursday night. While this
occurs, upper level troughing will move into the western U.S. The
first short wave from this western trough will swing northeast
across our region Thursday night through Friday night and will
bring in good chances of rain/snow through this time period. The
issue then becomes for Saturday through Monday and how the western
U.S. trough evolves along with the short waves and their associated
surface fronts affect our region. The consensus weather and pops
look fine for now with a few dry periods at this point from Saturday
through Monday. The winds will be picking up from the southeast
Thursday night into Friday. With a good surface pressure gradient
and mixing, expect southeast winds of 15 to 30 mph across the cwa on
Friday. Otherwise, high temperatures through the long term are
expected to be around 5 degrees either side of normal with mainly
40s. Expect some 50s in the southwest cwa on Thursday and especially
on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Clouds are expected to persist through tonight across the region.
Much of it will favor MVFR, but IFR and even an occasional VFR
cig is possible, especially out west. Isolated to sct snow showers
are possible through early evening at all terminals.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.