131
FXUS61 KAKQ 291901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through
midweek with a ridge remaining overhead through the week. Well above
normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak
cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Precipitation
chances increase this weekend, as another cold front approaches
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Near record high temperatures today.

Late this morning, sfc high pressure was centered off the SE
coast. Under a sunny sky, temps were ranging through the 70s.
A strong upper level ridge was in place from the Florida coast
nwrd into PA. Dry and hot this aftn with SW or W winds 5-10 mph
N and 10-15 mph S. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around
90. Record highs today are generally in the 90s apart from 89
at SBY (see climate section below for more information). As
such, most areas will be a few degrees shy of records except
SBY, which may reach or exceed the daily record high. Mostly
clear and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Tuesday.

-Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday with a cold front
passage.

Aloft, a ridge weakens Tue and Wed as a shortwave moves through. At
the surface, a weak area of low pressure moves E through the Mid
Atlantic and off the coast Tue into early Wed with high pressure
building in behind it. This pushes a weak cold front through the
area late Tue night into Wed. A few isolated showers/storms are
possible across the Piedmont Tue afternoon/evening with the
shortwave. Temps will once again be well above normal on Tue with
highs in the upper 80s for most. SBY may once again reach or exceed
the daily record high (see climate section below for more
information).

PoPs increase Wed morning into Wed afternoon as scattered
showers/storms develop along and behind the cold front moving
through the area. PoPs have trended higher (35-55%) with the best
chance for rain across SE VA/NE NC where around ~0.25" of rain is
possible. The rain ends by Wed evening with dry weather expected Wed
night. Highs Wed will be largely dependent upon timing of the
front/rain with a faster FROPA allowing for warmer temps in interior
portions of the FA. For now, have highs mainly in the lower 80s
inland (locally mid 80s) and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures inland continue through the weekend.

-Trending cooler along the coast with onshore flow.

-Scattered showers/storms are possible Saturday and Sunday ahead of
a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with
above normal temps expected inland. At the sfc, high pressure builds
E of the area Thu into Fri with onshore flow everywhere Thu and
along the coast Fri. This will keep temps cooler along the coast and
warmer inland. Highs in the mid 80s W to the upper 60s to near 70F E
Thu and mid 80s W to mid 70s E Fri (coolest along the Atlantic
beaches of the Eastern Shore). Additionally, with high pressure
overhead, dry weather is expected both days apart from a low chance
for an isolated shower/storm across the Piedmont Fri evening/night.

A cold front approaches from the W Sat into Sun, slowing/stalling
once it reaches the local area. As such, the weekend looks unsettled
with scattered showers/storms possible both Sat and Sun (45-50% PoPs
Sat and 35-40% PoPs Sun). Shower/storm chances continue even into
Mon with 25-35% PoPs. Given widespread cloud cover and scattered
convection, highs will be cooler (but still mild) this weekend.
Highs in the 70s NE to lower 80s for most Sat, mid 70s NE to around
80F SW Sun, and mid-upper 70s NE to the lower 80s SW Mon. Lows
remain in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into
Tue aftn, with just a few CU or SCT-BKN CI expected. SW winds
5-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt will occur through the period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
into Tue night. But, there is a slight chance of a shower/tstm
at RIC/SBY Tue evening. Higher chances (30-50%) of showers or
tstms will be possible Wed into Wed evening, with brief flight
restrictions likely in any tstms. Dry Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period though some gusts to around 20 kt are possible
at times.

High pressure remains centered off of the Carolinas with an
area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes. This is placing
the region under a persistent southwest flow around 10 to 15
knots. Seas persist around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet offshore),
and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at
the mouth). Southwesterly flow continues overnight and decreases
with the loss of mixing. For Tue southwest winds should
increase a little after daybreak with mixing resulting to 10 to
15 kt with a few higher gusts possible over the Bay and near
shore waters closer to land.

A cold front approaches the waters from the north and northwest
late Tuesday night pushing south past Ocean City and the
Potomac River in the morning reaching the lower Bay and NC
waters later in the afternoon. S to SW winds will increase
slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to
20 knots over the coastal waters) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Seas increase some due to the stronger S winds, with
seas approaching 4 to 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape
Charles Light. Winds shift to the N and NE behind the front
Wednesday morning and remain around 10 to 15 kt. Generally
onshore flow from the NE then E is expected from late Wednesday
into Friday. Have increased the NE winds a little with this
forecast updated based on the models, but winds remain below
SCA criteria around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt
possible at times. Another front potentially approaches the
waters later this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/JAO
CLIMATE...