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000
FXUS64 KAMA 101729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

08z WV satellite shows an upper trough located roughly over an arc
extending from N central OK to the Big Bend. Shortwave wrapping
around this feature led to an extended period of rainfall in the
Panhandles but, as the main trough advances eastward, forcing for
ascent is slowly being lost. Radar returns have been decreasing
overnight and will continue to do so through the morning hours.

Today and Thursday, despite northerly winds, clearing skies
should lead to highs returning to mainly the 60s. Despite a bit of
a breeze today, the suddenly abundant surface moisture should
keep any fire concerns at bay both afternoons.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

An upper level ridge will translate across the Panhandles on Friday.
A vort max is expected to approach the northwest CWA by afternoon in
an increasing southwest flow aloft behind the ridge.  This vort max
is expected to help intensify a surface low in southeast Colorado
and the pressure gradient will tighten allowing the winds to
increase into the 15 to 25 mph range.

Southwest surface winds will be a little lighter on Saturday as a
surface trough moves into the Panhandles.  Winds may even be a
little lighter still on Sunday as the lee-side trough moves east of
the region.

Models do not agree on the strength or the path of the next upper
level low that approaches the Plains on Monday.  Some are faster and
further north, which would be drier for our area.  Some are slower
and further south which gives us a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms.  At any rate, if the dryline can hold up in our area
on Monday, then it could help produce some thunderstorms in which
some could become severe.

Highs will generally be in the 80`s Friday through Tuesday with a
few upper 70`s and lower 90`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Winds will be breezy at times out of the north-northwest this
afternoon, becoming lighter this evening and overnight. Some
scattered mid to high level clouds will pass overhead as well, but
impactful ceilings are not expected.

Harrel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday in the
northwest. This is where the strongest winds will be found with
the lowest RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                38  67  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  37  68  39  85 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              33  67  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  41  71  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              36  70  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  37  67  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               41  68  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 32  67  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  36  67  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                36  68  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                41  68  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   40  67  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                42  69  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              43  69  43  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ001.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38