116
FNUS53 KAPX 031920
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...Warm Saturday; More shower chances arrive Saturday night...

.DISCUSSION...Warmer than normal temperatures expected tomorrow, but
RH`s remain above critical thresholds. Easterly winds around 10 mph
gusting to the mid teens will shift to the southwest tomorrow
afternoon. Chances of rain return to northern Michigan Saturday
night as a system passes through the Great Lakes region.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-040815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 11 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer...except 12 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 20 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (676).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.20 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (497).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (239).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (51).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) until 1200, then
                    sunny (15-25 percent). Rain showers likely
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier...except 28 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (571).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-040815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 21 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (739).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (61).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.31 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (375).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-040815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the east
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (753).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.18 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler...except 14 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (452).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
320 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (481).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (63).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (563).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

SJC