National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBGM 141336
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
936 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast-moving area of low pressure will move over Central New
York and Northeastern Pennsylvania Sunday. This will result in
bringing widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
across the forecast area. Heading into the early week, Monday
and Tuesday will be dry, with showers returning Wednesday and
lasting the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...


A warm front is currently pushing through the area as of late
this morning with a low pressure system tracking across northern
NY. A band of showers with the warm front is still expected to
advance eastward with it. The narrow window of instability into
a high shear environment is still modeled to occur later this
afternoon and evening across NE PA. However, mesoscale modeling
is not as robust as runs yesterday with this potential
including the 12Z HRRR which just came in. Dewpoints only
getting into the low and mid 50`s is another cause of concern as
well along with the thick clouds across NY. While the potential
for severe weather continues some signs are showing up the
threat may end up lower later today.


405 AM Update...

A fast-moving area of low pressure moving over our area Sunday
will bring widespread showers, as well as strong to severe
thunderstorms. A first wave of showers will move through in the
morning across mainly Central NY. Later into the afternoon and
into the evening is when strong to severe thunderstorm develop
occurs. A line of thunderstorms will move west-northwest to
east-southeast starting between 2pm to 4pm over northern
portions of Central NY. As these storms progress south-
southeastward, they will move into a more favorable area for
severe development over the Southern Tier and Northeastern PA
between 4pm and 6pm. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5, as
well as CAPE values of 500 to 700 Joules, and with shear around
30-50 kts leaves NE PA and the Southern Tier prime for severe
thunderstorm development Sunday evening. Damaging winds, hail
greater than 1 inch, and tornadoes are all possible in this
scenario for the Southern Tier and NE PA after 4pm.

Things will quiet down heading into Sunday night and into
Monday, with dry conditions expected and temperatures in the
mid-50s to low-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
402 AM Update...

High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, with fair weather and a warming trend continuing. Low
pressure will move into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A warm
front extending across the Mid-Atlantic states will lift into the
region early Wednesday, with showers overspreading the area from SW
to NE through the day. The onset time of showers appears to be
slowing based on the latest model runs, and PoPs have been shaved
back to account for this trend.

Precip chances will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday as a
cold front approaches from the west, and a few thunderstorms are
possible as well. Rain showers look to hang around most of the day
Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
402 AM Update...

There will likely be a drier spell sometime Thursday night into
Friday, but uncertainty in timing means mentionable PoPs are
present for the period. Rain chances look to increase late
Friday as a fast moving upper level trough rolls through the
area. This looks to usher in a period of cooler weather with
scattered lake-enhanced showers Saturday and Sunday, though it
doesn`t look to be a total washout either. Drier conditions look
to arrive late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although some high to mid-level clouds are moving into the area,
all terminals remain in VFR. As a front moves through the area
this morning, RME and SYR will be the first to fall to MVFR
ceilings between 14Z and 15Z with some light rain showers, and
then to fuel alt by 20Z, and finally IFR by 23Z. Although
chances for thunderstorms are more likely south of the area,
there may be a rough storm that moves through in the mid-morning
to afternoon, but confidence was too low to put in the TAFs for
RME and SYR. For ITH, ELM, BGM, AVP, they will see a similar
decay in category with the front moving through, but chances for
thunderstorms come into play this afternoon for ITH/ELM/BGM,
and later in the evening for AVP. After 00Z, category will
likely fall to either fuel alt or IFR, but confidence in timing
is too low to put in for this TAF period.


Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Chance for rain showers and possible
restrictions in the morning, then a round of thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon, favoring KELM, KITH, KBGM and KAVP.
Storms may produce gusty winds.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, another chance of showers
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...KL