Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...

This is the fifth edition of the series of regularly scheduled
Hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter to Spring transition
season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of
river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York
and Northeast Pennsylvania through March 14, 2024. Remember that
heavy rainfall is the most important determining factor toward the
development and severity of flooding in our area.

...SUMMARY...

The river and lake flood potential for the NWS Binghamton
hydrologic service area is below normal.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 29...

Recent Precipitation: Below normal. Weekly departures were
showing between 25 and 70% of normal for most of the region.

Snow Cover: Below normal. Much of the region is without a snow
cover except for fresh, powdery lake effect snow accumulations of
6 to 18 inches over eastern parts of the Oswego drainage basin.

Snow Water Equivalent: There is one inch or less stored liquid in
areas covered by the heavy lake effect snow and nothing elsewhere.

Streamflow + Lake levels: Normal seasonal flows in most areas.

Groundwater: Above normal storage.

River Ice: Below normal. No significant ice cover exists on area
rivers.

Soil States: Wetter than normal and unfrozen.

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC FORECAST OUTLOOK...

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS:
The official 6 to 14 day outlook suggests warmer than normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. Medium range weather
forecast models suggest only a slight chance for significant
rainfall during the next two weeks, mainly associated with a
potentially strong low pressure system affecting the area toward
the end of week one.

LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:
The ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests only weak
signals favoring any river flooding developing during the next 14
days. When comparing current hydrologic forecast modeling against
historical flows, the current flood risk is considerably below
the seasonal probability.

...IN CONCLUSION...

Taking all of the included variables into consideration, the
overall river flood potential is below normal for the major
basins encompassing Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania.

If conditions change over the next two weeks, Flood Watches and
Warnings will be issued as necessary. The next Outlook is
scheduled for March 14, 2024.

$$

JAB


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