Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

We have cancelled the winter storm warning over Ward and Renville
counties and replaced it with a winter weather advisory, mainly
due to lingering light freezing drizzle. Gusty winds will diminish
but snowfall up to 7 inches (north of Minot) in the area combined
with the freezing drizzle will make for hazardous travel through
the night. Snow is expected to be exiting the far north central in
the next hour or so and expect this remaining portion of the
winter storm warning can be downgraded early on the overnight

Pretty much the same scenario for the rest of central ND. Although
not as much snow, we had more sleet and freezing rain/drizzle in
the evening, with freezing drizzle continuing late this evening.
We also extended the freezing drizzle through much of the night
over central ND based on BUFKit soundings with a saturated lower
atmosphere with omega within this layer and a loss of ice aloft.
Thus a continuation of the winter weather advisory for the rest of
central ND.

Expanded the mention of fog across most of the west and also
pulled it farther east into central tonight. Most areas are within
the 1-3sm range except for Hettinger. A more northwest flow has
cleared the fog across the far southwest and think this may make
it into the Hettinger area in the next couple hours.

Updated pops again based on latest radar and a blend of short term
guidance. Updated WSW has been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 821 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Snow north central, and a mix of snow sleet and freezing drizzle
south central, continue to move east this evening. Precipitation
has ended in the west and will cancel the advisory in the far
northwest and for the southwest. Have added a mention of fog
across the west, where the advisory was cancelled. Most areas were
in the 1-3sm range with lower visibilities at Dickinson and
Hettinger. Updated pops through Saturday morning based on latest
radar analysis and latest iterations of a blend of short term
models. Updated text products will be sent shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Have downgraded the Winter Storm Warning to an Advisory across the
southern tier of counties east of the Missouri River. Otherwise
have kept the winter storm warning going as is.

Latest satellite imagery shows a northeast tracking jet streak
from western South Dakota into southwest North Dakota. This
feature correlates with increasing reflectivities on radar across
South central North Dakota. This is the main reason we will leave
the winter storm warning going for portions of south central North

Also starting to see some freezing rain and sleet where a ice
crystals in are lacking. Fog will also be seen southwest in good
low level upslope flow.

Finally, the significant blowing snow across the northwest will
improve slowly this evening.

The snow will rapidly diminish tonight and Saturday will see the
snow end in the east by noon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The extended will see an active period of weather Sunday and
Monday as another shortwave  good chance for rain and snow Sunday
as a broad trough swings through the northern plains.

Otherwise the region will be under the influence of northwest
flow Wednesday through friday with several transient waves that
will give the region a chance of rain and snow. Warmest
temperatures will be southwest with highs in the 30s and lower
40s during this period. Cooler with highs in the low to mid 30s
north and east.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle ending early this
evening at KBIS and continuing through 06 UTC at KJMS. Snow
ending at KMOT by 02 UTC. Widespread IFR to LIFR fog and stratus
will remain in the west tonight and expand toward KBIS and KMOT,
continuing through Saturday morning and slowly improving Saturday
afternoon. KJMS will remain VFR to MVFR tonight with possible IFR
ceilings Saturday morning. Strong southeast flow over central ND
will gradually dissipate tonight.


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ004-005-012-

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday
for NDZ042-045.



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