Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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468
FXUS63 KBIS 240532
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Minor adjustments were made to the precipitation forecast for this
update. Reduced snow amounts southwest due to slightly warmer
surface and air temperatures. Also reduced precipitation amounts
further north as rain has been rather light compared to what was
expected earlier.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Minor tweaks were made to the precipitation forecast for tonight.
Latest trends are a bit further west than earlier forecast with
this evening`s precipitation. Also, it appears the chance for snow
will be limited to far southwest North Dakota mainly after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over the high plains of
wyoming with an inverted trough into far southeast Montana. Good
low level convergence along the inverted trough all the way into
far southwest ND. Cloudy over western into north central ND with
shower activity showing up over eastern Montana with some light
precipitation possibly reaching the ground over northwest ND.
Light rain reported in both Glendive and Sidney MT during the past
hour.

For the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Strong north to
northeast winds continue over southwest ND this afternoon and
evening. Shower chances also increase over the west central and
southwest late this afternoon and expand into south central ND
tonight. Precipitation remains either rain or a mix of rain and
snow this evening. the exception may be the far southwest (higher
elevations of Bowman and Slope counties) where precip may change
over to snow quicker.

Snow accumulations are generally an inch or less, over the far
southwest. There may be a few areas with higher amounts of around
two inches in grassy areas. Most areas other than the far
southwest will have little or no snow accumulation as precip falls
as all rain, or possibly a mix of rain and snow on the back end,
with no snow accumulation.

Precipitation will taper during the morning over the far
south central. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday for most areas.
But the northwest will be a little warmer than today with more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Wednesday will warm into the mid/upper 60s in most areas ahead of
the next shortwave, blend of models keeps any measurable precip
(and barely that) east of our forecast area. Will need to monitor
winds and RH as fire weather hazards may become an issue before
green-up. Strongest winds will be over the northeast half of the
CWA. A brief cool down Thursday will drop temperatures into the
mid 50s and lower 60s. Friday through the rest of the extended
temperatures generally return to the upper 60s to middle 70s.
There is still a lot of uncertainty among the medium range
guidance with an upper trough deepening and approaching the state
late in the forecast period. GFS is much quicker/stronger with the
initial wave moving through the area Saturday. EC/GEM are slower
with the western low before ejecting into the plains and any
specific details remain murky at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Rain and MVFR ceilings in KDIK and KBIS will continue to 10Z, with
vicinity showers likely thereafter to 12Z. Gusty northerly winds
in KDIK/KBIS will gradually decrease by 10z. Rain and lower VFR
ceilings are also possible at KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AC



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