Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231732
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulating snow west into central today through
  tonight along with increasing easterly winds.

- High chance for an impactful winter storm tonight through
  Monday, and possibly lingering into Monday night in the James
  River Valley and east.

- Impacted areas will be along and south of a line from
  Williston and Watford City to Harvey and Carrington, with the
  greatest impacts along and south of Interstate 94.

- Below normal temperatures continue into next week, with a
  general warming trend into the beginning of April.

- Another weather disturbance late next week may bring another
  round of precipitation to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Light snow continues across western and south central ND this
early afternoon, and continues to track slowly to the east and
lifting ever so slowly north. Snow has tapered over the far
southwest. Once snow tapers on the back end over western ND and
this afternoon/evening there will be a lull in the snowfall.
Snow will ramp up later tonight through early Sunday from west
to east. Impacts today will be reduced visibilities (so far
1-3sm in the heaviest snow) and slippery roads due to the snow.
Made minor adjustments to pops through the day today based on
latest short term guidance.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Light snow continues over much of southwest and far south
central ND (a few flakes just starting at the office). Expect
snow to continue to work it`s was slowly east and north through
the day. Winds are generally 10 to 15 mph but will continue to
increase through the day. We are still looking for light
accumulations today of around an inch or less. A few areas
southwest could see 1-2 inches. The main impacts look to begin
late tonight (after midnight) southwest and push eastward
through the day. Only some minor tweaks to the forecast this
morning based on latest radar imagery.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Aforementioned lead snow continues to developing into the
region. See below for further discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with broad surface high
pressure across eastern areas of the region early this morning.
Lingering low stratus and a few flurries persist southwest, but
should too dissipate with time as forcing wanes.

Strong area of low pressure just off the West Coast this
morning will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours, with a
S/WV ridge across the Rockies developing and waning to the east
today and tonight. We still expect a band of light snow
developing across the Dakotas from west to east today as right
entrance region upper level jet dynamics and subtle low/mid
level frontogensis forcing migrate east across the region. Half
upwards to an inch of snow remains forecast through this
evening from Williston southeast through the James River Valley
and all points west.

Main forcing mechanisms associated with the aforementioned
upper low move into the region tonight and into the day Sunday,
as multiple lead embedded waves lift east-northeast across the
Northern Plains as flow aloft becomes west/southwest. The
associated sfc low will be quasi-stationary to our south,
centered over eastern Colorado, developing and leading to
increasing isentropic ascent to its north across our region late
this weekend. Snow/QPF probabilities remain pretty much the
same as 12/24 hours ago, with greater than 90 percent chance for
6 inches of snow over the southern two thirds of ND, with still
50-70 percent chance of 12 inches along and south of Interstate
94 (Sat night through Monday morning). Easterly winds will
increase, and will become an increasing impact Sunday and
especially Sunday night into Monday morning (turning more
north/northeasterly) as the surface low lifts northeast into the
Upper Midwest and as sfc high pressure develops into the High
Plains of eastern Montana (increasing pressure gradient for the
Dakotas). So while the main period of accumulating snow ends
through Sunday night, blowing snow impacts look to linger
through Monday morning.

For headlines, in coordination with our NWS neighbors, will hold
with the Winter Storm Watch with this product issuance with
still some questions on the north to south snow accumulation
gradient as surface high pressure over south central Canada
will likely result in a sharp north to south snow gradient.

After the storm, temperatures are favored to bottom out Monday
and Tuesday, with highs in the teens and 20s. A gradual warming
trend is then forecast thereafter, getting closer to normal
values by the end of this month. Precipitation chances look
minimal through mid-week, with some signal of another wave
moving through the general area later in the week. Will continue
to monitor this. Some interest then late next week with another
potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Light snow will spread west to east slowly today with mostly
MVFR to low VFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in light snow. Later tonight
through the day Monday widespread show and increasing east to
northeast winds will spread west to east across the forecast
area, including all TAF sites. Southern TAF sites of KDIK, KBIS
and KJMS will see greater impact with snow and blowing and
drifting snow. As snow begins tonight from west to east expect
it to continue through the 18Z TAF period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
through Monday evening for NDZ009-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH


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