Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250518
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The latest obs were blended into the forecast. No other changes
were made.

UPDATE Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Adjusted sky grids based on mid-high level clouds upstream in
southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba moving south/southeast. Otherwise
no major updates.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

High pressure continues over the area. Trended low temperatures
along our south slightly cooler tonight where clear skies and
light wind will maximize radiational cooling. Otherwise no major
changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Marginal fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon.

A surface high pressure system will lead to clear skies with
light and variable winds this evening through tonight for all of
western and central North Dakota.

A shortwave will approach western North Dakota later tomorrow
afternoon and begin moving through the region tomorrow evening.
NAM BUFR forecast soundings show very dry air at low and mid
levels through tomorrow evening, so no precipitation is expected
with the shortwave passage. The main concern will be in regards to
fire weather, as relative humidities at the surface look to be 20
to 30 percent combined with sustained winds around 15 to 20 knots.
CONSMOS was used for winds tomorrow as this model solution yielded
the fastest wind speeds. A Fire Weather Watch does not appear
necessary at this time as conditions are very marginal and the
ground is still moist from recent snowmelt in some areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Dry weather with seasonable to above average temperatures will
prevail Wednesday night through Sunday for all of western and
central North Dakota.

A strong ridge will begin building into North Dakota on Thursday,
with the ridge axis located over central North Dakota by Sunday.
This will usher in the warmest air of the year so far, with high
temperatures approaching 80 degrees in many spots across western
and central North Dakota.

Fire weather concerns are not high as of now for Saturday and
Sunday, however relative humidities and winds may be marginal for
fire weather issues. Conditions will need to be monitored.

The latest suite of global models suggests chances for
rain to return later Sunday night through Tuesday morning as an
upper level low moves through the state. A few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out as instability, moisture and lift look to be
sufficient in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast
period. Gusty southwest winds return by mid/late morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...AC



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