Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261124
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy blowing snow in the south central and into the James
  River Valley today.

- Well below average temperatures remain today, before a warming
  trend through the rest of the week takes us closer to near
  normal temperatures.

- A more active pattern is forecast to begin late this week,
  with chances for mixed precipitation arriving late this week
  and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Low clouds continue to linger across the far south central and James
River Valley. Some locations in this area are occasionally reporting
flurries, and many of our webcams confirm this, so we`ve added in
some flurries through the early morning hours. These should end
rather quickly as dry air continues to move into the area, though
the clouds may linger for longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

At the moment, the storm that brought us our snow continues to move
out of the area, with only some lingering clouds and flurries in the
southern James River Valley. The Winter Weather Advisory in LaMoure
and Dickey Counties has been ended early, as the concerns for
blowing snow have diminished across the area, with conditions at
Oakes improving over the past couple of hours. Gusty northerly winds
will continue, however, with patchy blowing snow still possible
across the southern James River Valley through the day today.
Otherwise, clear skies and calm winds are present elsewhere, as
surface high pressure slides southeastward across North Dakota. Lows
this morning may dip below zero across the west, into the single
digits closer to central North Dakota.

The middle of the week is expected to be dry for the most part, as
an upper level ridge begins to move across the area from the west.
Winds should be on the decrease as well, though may remain gusty
throughout the day today across the James River Valley on the
backside of the surface low associated with the winter storm. Patchy
blowing snow may be a concern through this area as well, however
with the chilly nighttime temperatures and general settling and
crusting of the fresh snow, this blowing snow shouldn`t be as
extensive as it was on Monday. Highs today will reach into the upper
teens and lower 20s. This pattern continues through Wednesday, with
dry conditions and light winds. Under the presence of the upper
level ridging and zonal flow aloft, temperatures should begin to
warm somewhat through Wednesday and Thursday, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and potentially reaching the
upper 30s and mid 40s on Thursday, bringing us closer to seasonally
average temperatures.

The upper level flow begins to break down late Thursday though, as
some shortwaves embedded within the flow begins to bring us
occasional chances for precipitation. A rather transient wave is
forecast to push across the state through Friday, bringing a short
lived chance (roughly 20-40%) for precipitation, most likely falling
as a mix of rain and snow. Daytime temperatures on Friday are
forecast to be well above freezing, however if precipitation falls
before peak heating or into the evening hours, then the mix is more
likely. Total accumulations with this is not forecast to be much at
all, due to the limited moisture associated with this wave, as well
as the transient nature of it.

As that disturbance passes through our area, a more prominent upper
level trough is forecast to dig south across the western CONUS,
before moving east through the weekend. This disturbance may bring
us a longer lived period of precipitation, however with it being
almost a week out, the exact placement of the associated low
pressure system is still pretty variable between models. As such,
the probability of precipitation is mostly just a wide swath of 20-
40% chances across the entire area Sunday through Monday.
Temperatures this far out are forecast to remain pretty similar to
Friday, with highs through Tuesday in the mid to upper 30s across
the area. As such, exact precipitation type is once again forecast
as a mix of rain and snow, with the highest likelihood of rain
across the south. Given the high variability of the strength and
positioning of the upper level trough, we anticipate the forecast
for this wave of precipitation will change quite a bit as we get
closer to the event, so we`ll continue to keep an eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are present at all terminals apart from KJMS, which
is currently MVFR due to some low stratus. Some occasional flurries
and are possible under these low clouds as well. Winds are generally
light everywhere apart from the James River Valley, with KJMS seeing
some north northwesterly winds of around 20 kts, gusting up to 30
kts at times. This is resulting in some patchy blowing snow in the
area as well. These winds will continue through the day, before
beginning to decrease heading into the late evening hours.
Otherwise, generally light northwesterly winds are expected across
all other terminals, with mostly clear skies throughout the TAF
period as surface high pressure moves into the area from the
northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson


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