Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 202300
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
600 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Quiet weather continues over the area. No changes needed to the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Upper air analysis indicated anticyclonic flow aloft with a
disorganized low moving through the central plains. High clouds on
the north end of this energy were moving into our south. Surface
high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas with low pressure
deepening to the west under southwesterly flow aloft. No more
frost concerns tonight with lows in the 40s across the area.

On Monday the warming trend continues with highs in the upper 70s.
Cloud cover will mostly be contained to the southeast as the
aforementioned low pressure wave passes through. Otherwise mostly
sunny skies with light winds persist under continued ridging
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Thunderstorm chances return beginning Tuesday as the upper ridge
pattern breaks down with multiple impulses tracking through the
region. Southerly surface flow continues with dew points rising to
the 40s and 50s by Tuesday as well as temperatures in the 70s and
80s. Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon especially
along a weak frontal passage through the west and south. As for
severe chances...uncertainty lies in pre-frontal instability with
early cloud cover possible as well as the presence of just
marginal deep layer shear.

A broad upper low over the intermountain west lifts northeast
through Friday giving the Northern Plains continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms in that time period. Chances for severe
weather remain uncertain but will need to continue monitoring as
an alignment of an adequate CAPE/shear profile is possible as
moist southerly flow continues through the week.

GFS/ECMWF solutions indicate a stronger frontal passage on Friday
with northwest flow aloft and likely drier conditions for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...JJS



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