Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170255
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Updated precipitation chances for the overnight hours and through
the day on Wednesday using the latest guidance. Will let the wind
advisory expire as planned as winds continue to slowly trend down.
Otherwise, just blended the latest observations to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

No significant changes were needed for this update. Blended the
latest observations with the going forecast, which did nudge up
the winds a tiny bit in the advisory area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Wind Advisories are currently in effect until 9 PM MST for far
southwestern North Dakota where surface weather observations show
winds gusting between 35 and 45 mph this afternoon along a tight
pressure gradient. Expect winds to decrease after sunset when
mixing becomes limited.

Latest model guidance has been slower to move in our next area of
precipitation associated with a surface low pressure system that
will move over eastern Colorado and Kansas tomorrow morning
through tomorrow night. Expect moderate mid-level frontogensis in
an area of synoptic-scale lift to aid the formation of light rain
showers across western North Dakota tomorrow morning.

Forecast NAM BUFR soundings in Dickinson and Bowman show there is
the possibility of a brief period of freezing rain tomorrow
morning, however ice accumulations look to be very little to none
with no impacts expected. Road temperatures will quickly warm
after sunrise when light rain is expected across much of western
and central North Dakota. Forecast BUFR soundings show rain
changing to wet snow by tomorrow evening as temperatures plummet
below freezing throughout the entire column with a saturated snow
growth zone.

Chances for snow will continue across central North Dakota
tomorrow night and into early Wednesday morning. Any snow
lingering into Wednesday afternoon will likely switch back over
to light rain as temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower
40s. Expect only a trace to half an inch of snow across western
North Dakota, with 1 to 2 inches possible across most of central
North Dakota before the region dries out Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Dry conditions will prevail across western and central North
Dakota for Wednesday night through Friday night as high pressure
builds in from the west. This will allow for strong mid April
sunshine to warm the region well into the 40s and lower 50s on
Thursday and Friday with rapid snowmelt expected for any areas
that still have some snow on the ground.

Another low pressure system over the four-corners region will
move eastward on Friday, giving southern North Dakota slight
chances of light snow Friday morning before quickly changing over
to light rain as temperatures warm to well above freezing. Slight
chances for light rain across the far south will continue through
Friday night. Split synoptic-scale flow with some ridging over
the state will dominate on Saturday and Sunday, making for drier
and warmer conditions. In fact, western North Dakota will flirt
with 60 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, before a slight cooldown
on Monday into the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail over the first part of the period;
however, gusty winds out of the southeast will continue through
early Tuesday afternoon across most of western and central North
Dakota. Low level wind shear may also cause a few issues. Lower
ceilings and light rain will move into the forecast by Tuesday
afternoon, promoting periods of MVFR and IFR conditions towards
the end of the forecast.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NDZ031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ZH



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