Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 161101
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

No changes required for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Another cold start to the day on Monday with lows mainly in the
teens over central and eastern North Dakota, some upper single
digits are not out of the question between Bismarck and Jamestown
and northward toward Garrison and Rugby where more snow remains.

Today will be a little warmer for most areas, but still well below
normal. It could be a windy afternoon/evening over western North
Dakota. A steepening pressure gradient and tight baroclinic zone
will lead to increasing southeasterly winds through the day.
Forecast soundings have 30+ knots of wind at the top of the
boundary layer. However, mixing will be a challenge with an
upsloping direction to the winds and much warmer air aloft leading
to an inversion most of the day. If stronger winds do mix down
then there is the potential for Wind Advisory winds in the west.
Elected to hold off on issuing anything at this time due to the
uncertainty of higher winds materializing at the surface. However,
utilized the higher end of the guidance for the forecast today
which lead to widespread winds with gusts near 40 mph across the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

An inverted trough will remain over the Northern Plains Tuesday
and Wednesday. The combination of the low level convergence
associated with the inverted trough and mid and upper level
forcing from a splitting upper level trough will produce an area
of light precipitation that tracks slowly across western and
central ND late Monday night through Wednesday.

Models have come into pretty good agreement with respect to timing
and location of this precipitation. Rain is the expected form of
precipitation Tuesday then a mix of rain and snow is forecast for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast soundings show a small
potential for light freezing rain early Wednesday morning, but
duration and amounts should be minimal.

After this system exits, expect mainly dry conditions with a slow
warming trend through Sunday

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Southeast winds will
increase this afternoon and remain breezy through the overnight
hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



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