000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
432 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions through Sunday
  afternoon.

- Rain chances late Sunday through Monday, possibly lingering
  into Tuesday. Greatest chances (~30 to 50 percent north of
  Interstate 94) come Monday, but this has trended down some.

- Gusty northwest winds Monday.

- Rain chances return later in the work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Current surface analysis places low lifting to the northeast of
James Bay, with high settled through central and eastern Montana
into the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places low over
James Bay, with ridge over the west coast. Short wave dropping
down the back side of the low through the Northern Plains
continues to bring some low clouds and flurries to the southern
half our area, though this has been clearing the past few hours
from north to south as the wave continues on its way.

For today, west coast ridge pushes east and amplifies ahead of
an approaching Pacific low. This will result in mainly clear
skies over our area and the start of a warming trend. Quiet
weather remains tonight.

On Sunday ridge passes over but starts to break down as a wave
that ejected off of the aforementioned upper low pushes west
and starts to close off. Ahead of this, temperatures will warm
to a bit above average. Overnight, with the approaching low,
clouds will be on the increase with low chances for some light
rain coming late night primarily to western portions of the
area.

On Monday, chances spread over much of the area, with the
greatest chances (~30-50 percent) being mainly north of
Interstate 94. This has been a little bit of a drop off from the
previous forecasts. Wind shifts west to northwesterly and will
be on the increase. Forecast soundings at this time over western
and southern portions of the area suggest wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will be possible.

A little rain may linger into Tuesday before the next ridge
builds into the area, bringing dry and mild weather for
Wednesday. Guidance shows persistant trough setting up over the
western CONUS for the later part of the work week into the
weekend resulting in active southwest flow over our area,
bringing rain chances and possibly some thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings will continue to dissipate from
north to south mainly before sunrise, with widespread VFR
conditions expected through the day on Saturday into Saturday
night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS