Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
532 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Minor update to expand fog across western and central North Dakota
through the morning hours. Some locations could see visibility
down to 1/4 mile at times.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Widespread fog is the main highlight in the short term.

Light winds combined with a lowering stratus deck is leading to
widespread fog across most of western and portions of central
North Dakota early this morning. Fog will likely continue through
the morning hours.

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday`s. Clouds will clear out
and plenty of sun will lead to temperatures in the 40s and 50s
across the area. Remaining snowpack will continue to rapidly melt.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A pattern change to warmer temperatures and drier weather will
overtake western and central North Dakota this weekend.

Saturday and Sunday look very nice with temperatures in the 60s
for most locations. There may be some minor fire concerns possible
Sunday/Monday with low humidity and breezy winds around 20 mph.

Compressional warming with the presence of a front nearby Sunday
will likely lead to high temperatures that are noticeably higher
than what a lot of the forecast guidance suggests. Model snow
depth values remain to high compared to observations, which is
keeping the forecast temperatures too low. In addition, bias-
corrected model guidance is too cold as well, since this data is
corrected based off the cold pattern we`ve been in lately and
doesn`t correlate with the warmer pattern change. For this reason
high temperatures were increased over most guidance values.

A potent shortwave will swing through North Dakota from the west
on Monday through Tuesday, leading to chances for rain and
possibly mixed with snow overnight across southern North Dakota.
Conditions look to dry back out for Wednesday as a ridge tries to
build back in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Surface high pressure extends across much of the Dakotas and
Saskatchewan at Midnight Thursday. Hazards to aviation for the
06Z TAF period include LIFR conditions in FOG/Low clouds from
KISN-KMOT-KDIK through 14Z, gradually improving to VFR after 14Z.




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