Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 941 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Going forecast remains in good shape. No changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

For evening update have broadened out the area that may be
affected by patchy fog tonight into early Wednesday a bit further
to the east in line with latest guidance. Otherwise, going
forecast remains in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Upper level analysis shows an amplified ridge over the Rockies,
northerly flow over the Northern Plains, and broad low pressure centered
over the Great Lakes region to the east. Surface high pressure has
moved off to our southeast, bringing light southerly surface flow
over the area. Clear skies and light winds through the west will
lead to chances for overnight patchy fog once again. However with
the surface high off to our southeast and increasing flow above
the boundary layer, confidence in coverage remains low.

A shortwave to our northeast and an associated cold front will
bring cloud cover to central and northern North Dakota on
Wednesday. To the west, a deep Pacific low moves over the western
coast. This will result in a transition to southwest flow over
the Rockies and a developing lee side surface trough over eastern
Montana, bringing warm southerly/southeasterly flow to western
North Dakota. High temperatures Wednesday look to be in the mid
40s in the southwest with the northwest and central in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday broad low pressure takes hold
over the west, breaking down the Northern Plains ridge. Quasi-
meridional flow over the western Plains carries an embedded
shortwave into eastern Montana and far western North Dakota by
early Thursday. With the greatest synoptic forcing off to our
west, precipitation chances will be low as forecast soundings
indicate an abundance of mid-level dry air. If precipiation does
manage to fall a rain/snow mix is most likely.

The broad western CONUS low ejects a Colorado wave early Friday,
however this stays to our south as high pressure builds over the
far Northern Plains. Global models are consistent with bringing
another low out of the Rockies on Sunday, with high uncertainty
about its track and how much precipiation will make it into our


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Patchy fog possible tonight into early Wednesday over central and
western North Dakota, but again the actual reduction in
visibility remains in question. Therefore, will mention VCFG in
most TAFs late this evening through early Wednesday morning.




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