619
FXUS63 KBIS 022056
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
356 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across
  western and central North Dakota this afternoon.

- Warming trend this weekend with windy conditions Sunday.

- Chances for rain returns late Sunday night, becoming likely
  by Monday (60 to 80 percent). Monday may also bring a better
  chance for some thunderstorms. Low to medium rain chances (20
  to 60 percent) continue into mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Satellite observations show an upper level low located over the
northwest that will continue to push eastward this evening.
Wrap around showers will persist across the western and
northern half of the state. There is enough instability over the
west and south central for thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will
decrease later this evening as instability decreases. Overcast
skies have resulted in below normal temperatures in the lower
50s this afternoon.

The upper low will continue to push eastward Friday and cold
air advection on the backside of the low will mix stronger winds
down to the surface. In addition a surface pressure gradient
will lead to breezy winds across the state in the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Friday as overcast
skies will linger for much of the day limiting warming.
Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the
southwest as surface high pressure passes over Friday night.
Saturday temperatures will begin to trend upward to near normal
as surface high pressure clears out the clouds across region
and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies.
Sunday temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60 to 70s out
west as the upper level ridge pushes quickly through the
region. A strong surface pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the western and south central North Dakota in
the afternoon. This short term warm up will be short lived as
another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS.

A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the
Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation
across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1
inch rain across the Northern half of the state. Thunderstorms
are possible as the system first moves into the region and there
is some instability around 500-1000 j/kg. CSU Machine Learning
Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the
ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low
chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy
conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a
tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around
precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers
and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the
50s through the middle of the week. After this system there is a
ton of model uncertainty as ensembles want to wash the upper
low out over the plains while some solutions try to move it
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MVFR conditions will continue in areas with rain which is
eastern half of the state. While low clouds are forming out west
which will lead to showers this afternoon and maybe a few
thunderstorms. Winds are forecast to switch out of the
southwest this afternoon to northwest by early tomorrow
afternoon. Temporary visibility reductions and lower ceilings are
possible under showers this afternoon. Thunderstorms may cause
gusty erratic winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson