595
FXUS64 KBMX 291059
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
559 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

A fairly dry day on tap today, at least through 1 PM. Rain chances
will be on the increase in the far west during the afternoon as
the line of showers and storms begins to approach the area. A
majority of the models now indicate the initial area of storms
will slide to our southwest, just clipping our southwestern
counties. These short range models show the line reaching the
MS/AL state line by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of
the northern portion of the line towards late afternoon as the
low level jet decreases. There may be a 3-6 hour window, in the
early evening with minimal coverage of convection over west
Alabama, then additional convection develops over MS as the mid
level trof axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates.
The better coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama
tonight into Tuesday morning as mid-level lapse rates increase
and a low level jet develops. Some stronger storms are possible
through Tuesday morning as MUCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. The
activity will continue to shift east Alabama through Tuesday
morning, with the rain ending across east Alabama by late
afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

Any remaining stray showers should dissipate shortly after sunset
Tuesday night. A surface ridge axis builds in, with clear skies
and light winds promoting favorable radiational cooling conditions
across the northern counties, while still elevated dew points in
the southern counties may be conducive for fog development. Mid-
level ridging builds from the Gulf across the Southeast CONUS
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions and warming
temperatures. A weak shortwave and increase in mid-level moisture
moves into our far western counties late Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night, but shower activity will have a tendency to dry up
as it encounters a drier low-level air mass.

Meanwhile a potent shortwave and surface low moving through the
Upper Midwest Thursday night will send a cold front our way Friday
and Friday night. A weak southern stream shortwave and increase
in mid-level moisture associated with possible MCS remnants will
bring an increase in rain chances, though low-level moisture
return and instability will be lacking. Thus PoPs remain in the
chance category for now. The front will stall out over the weekend
and eventually lift back to the north. Weak waves in quasi-zonal
flow aloft may provide some lower end rain chances as this happens
but there is little model agreement this far out.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 9 to 12 hours as a cold
front begins to approach the area. Most of the early activity
tonight into Tuesday will be along an outflow boundary that will
move through ahead of the front. Showers and storms will be
possible at TCL as early as 21z but most likely after 00z. BHM and
EET as early 00z, but most likely after 3z. A shower may be
around ASN and ANB as well after 3z, but best chances will be
after 6z. For MGM and TOI, we will see increasing clouds and
perhaps a shower between 6 and 9z, but the best chances will be
after 9z. Included thunder at the northern sites, but not the
southern sites. .


NOTE: KASN continues to have issues with report the sky
conditions, so added AMD LTD TO WIND VIS in the TAF.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well
above critical values. Rain chances increase this afternoon
through Tuesday. Dry conditions return on Wednesday with RH values
dropping back into the 30s and low 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  61  79  56 /  10  80  70  10
Anniston    82  62  80  58 /  10  70  70  10
Birmingham  83  63  80  60 /  20  80  60  10
Tuscaloosa  83  63  82  60 /  50  80  50   0
Calera      82  62  80  60 /  20  80  60  10
Auburn      81  64  80  62 /  10  30  50  10
Montgomery  84  64  82  62 /  10  50  50  10
Troy        84  63  82  63 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16