380
FXUS65 KBOI 070931
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
331 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...A cold front has
moved through the area as a deep upper level trough remains
over the WY/MT/SD. The instability from the cold air aloft
(500mb temps around -27C) will keep a threat of showers over
the area today, mainly focused over the mountains through this
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees
below normal today with the cool airmass. Windy conditions
expected, with the strongest winds in the Magic Valley and
southern Twin Falls County this afternoon, where a wind advisory
remains in effect. Upper level ridging over the Pacific NW and
southwest Canada will cut off the cold air source from the Gulf
of Alaska, and the trough will weaken and remain stationary over
the WY/MT/SD area through the short term. Wrap around moisture
will keep a threat of showers over the ID mountains on
Wednesday, but the rest of the area will remain dry, with about
10 degrees of warming on Wednesday. Breezy west to northwest
winds continue on Wednesday, but the upper level winds shift to
the north/northeast, which keeps the winds below advisory
levels. The upper level ridge expands over the Pacific NW on
Thursday, with northeast flow aloft keeping temperatures from
realizing the full potential of the ridge. Record breaking
temperatures possible over portions of the Pacific NW and
British Columbia, but the center of the ridge will be north and
west of our area, where the warmer temperatures are.
Temperatures warm another 10 degrees on Thursday with dry
conditions.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An east-west oriented ridge
will be in place to start Friday, and will dominate our weather
at least into Sunday. This will continue both the dry
conditions and the warming trend. Temps will be 5-10 degrees
above normal Friday, rising to 10 degrees above normal Saturday,
and 10-15 degrees above normal Sunday. There`s now a >90%
chance of exceeding 80 degrees Sunday for most of the Treasure
Valley. Slight cooling is expected Mon-Tue, but temps should
remain above normal. The vast majority of ensemble members keep
the area dry through Tuesday, but the deterministic GFS brings a
weak shortwave trough to the region. If this low-probability
solution ends up verifying, we will have a chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR-MVFR showers continue, mainly south and east of
Boise. Mountains obscured. Isolated IFR and local LIFR possible in
snow above 4-5kft MSL. Showers will increase in coverage this
afternoon, but not be as strong as Monday. Sfc winds: W-NW 10-20 kt,
increasing to W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts near TWF/JER to 35-45 kt
after 15z. FL100 winds: W-NW 20-35 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered showers this morning, tapering off around
12z/Tue, but isolated showers will redevelop this afternoon.
Only about a 10% chance for one to hit the airport. Sfc winds:
NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ016-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP