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000
FXUS64 KBRO 132325 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A zonal flow aloft will hold into tomorrow as a mid-level ridge
moves over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will
allow for temperatures to remain above normal for the short term
forecast period. Surface high over the Gulf of Mexico will continue
to move towards the east during the period. However, the interaction
between this high pressure and a low pressure over the Sierra Madre
will continue to produce an enhanced pressure gradient over the
region this afternoon into the early evening and then again for
tomorrow as well. While high level clouds are expected to persist
through the period, low-level moisture flow will allow for a more
favorable environment for the development of lower level clouds.

As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight are
expected to be mostly in the 60s for most of the area, however the
Lower Rio Grande Vally could get into the lower 70s. Then on Sunday
night, the low temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer to where
most of the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley is in the lower 70s,
while the rest of the region is in the upper 60s. The high
temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s for
the area, while the coastal counties and the island are expected to
be in the upper 80s.

Lastly, for those going to the beaches, there is a moderate risk of
rip currents that will last through tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An upper level ridge will be centered over Texas by the beginning
of the long term period, this ridge will slowly more out of the
area by mid week, being replaced with an upper level trough. A
shortwave embedded in this trough looks to provide some forcing
Wednesday night into Thursday, which could kick off some
convection over our area. As the trough moves through next
weekend, it will likely support the passage of a cold front, and
some showers and thunderstorms are possible as well. There is
uncertainty in the timing of the front and the rain chances,
ranging from Friday afternoon to the end of the period.
Additionally, model disagreements on the timing of the stronger
forcing and the amount of CAPE/CIN present make it difficult to
assess the timing and strength of any thunderstorms that could
develop. The best chances for thunderstorms appear to be Friday
night through Saturday, though that could change as models get a
better handle on the situation.

At the surface southeasterly flow early in the period will support
a general warming trend, with high temperatures peaking in the
upper 90s on Tuesday. An easterly wind shift on Wednesday will
keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90s until the arrival of
a cold front next weekend, at witch point high temperatures will
likely drop to the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. While upper level clouds are still expected to be
largely present, a few low-level clouds could make an appearance
as well due to the low level moisture flow from the southeasterly
winds. Speaking of the winds, breezy southeasterly winds are
expected to weaken overnight, but will increase again during the
morning hours and remain breezy during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...A low end Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters until 9 PM
this afternoon. Southeasterly winds are expected to be around 20
knots through the early parts of tonight before they weaken again as
the pressure gradient relaxes overnight. Winds are expected to
strenghtens again during the afternoon hours tomorrow that could
result in either Small Craft Exercise Caution or a low end Small
Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters
once again.

Monday through next Saturday...Moderate to strong southeaster
winds will likely lead to building seas and adverse marine
conditions through mid-week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed Monday through
Wednesday. Winds look to begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon as
the surface high pressure moves further offshore and pressure
gradients weak. Generally favorable conditions will persist
through the remainder of the period. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the coastal waters late next week,
with the best chances occurring next Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               67  87  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 69  89  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  77  72  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     69  83  70  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...64-Katz