Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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084 FXUS64 KBRO 021129 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A somewhat more calm weather pattern is expected during this portion of the total forecast. After largely dry weather today, a 500 mb disturbance will approach the western portion of the BRO CWFA late Friday. Showers/thunderstorms will develop at that time over neighboring Mexico, and isolated convection may ease into Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg counties for Friday afternoon and evening. Indeed, for this time period, the Storm Prediction Center indicates a general risk of thunderstorms, and additionally, no severe weather is anticipated. Additionally, slightly above normal to above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures will occur, thankfully tempered by mostly cloudy skies. A moderate to breezy onshore flow is also probable. Finally, elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RISK of rip currents at the local beaches today through Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A nearly zonal flow aloft with a series of mid-level shortwaves will prevail through period. This pattern will continue to support warm, humid, and generally rain-free conditions. Temperatures Friday night through Sunday will be above normal with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs generally in the upper 80s to the upper 90s, except for the lower 80s near the coast. Late in the weekend into the middle part of next week, the 500mb sub- tropical ridge will build north into Deep South Texas leading to hot and humid conditions across the region. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees, except for the 80s at the beaches, across the CWA. Heat indices of 100 to 107 degrees are expected Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be hotter Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s near the coast and in the 100s elsewhere. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tuesday and Wednesday will prevail across the area, mainly west of I-69C. Heat indices between 100 to 110 degrees will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by Wednesday. The rip current risk will remain moderate to occasionally high through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Today through Friday: An enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast today will ease slightly on Friday, as the typical high pressure and low pressure interaction weakens a bit. Moderate seas and moderate to breezy winds are anticipated, and while Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Exercise Caution is probable for portions or all of the lower Texas coastal waters during the period. Friday night through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Small craft caution conditions will be the dominant hazard. However, marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible at times, on the Laguna Madre and across the nearshore Gulf waters, due to the enhanced pressure gradient early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 78 90 76 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 75 92 73 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 78 94 76 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 95 75 / 10 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 77 82 76 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 87 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$