999
FXUS61 KBUF 020529
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge into our
region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday
night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and
possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mild temperatures and mainly dry weather for most of the region
early tonight. Exception however is across the eastern Lake Ontario
region where a stray showers and some rumbles of thunder may push
east into the Adirondacks.

A shortwave will track across southern Quebec tonight, with a weak
surface low also passing to our north, although its attendant weak
surface cold front will cross the region overnight. For most areas
this system will not have enough moisture or lift to produce any
precipitation, with the best chances lying north of Lake Ontario
east into the Saint Lawrence Valley. However, there is the chance
for a few scattered light showers to graze areas from the southern
Lake Ontario shoreline to the eastern Lake Ontario region along the
southern flank of the better moisture and lift ahead of the boundary
as it crosses the region. An isolated rumble of thunder or two also
cannot be ruled out toward the North Country and Saint Lawrence
Valley. Elsewhere, the passage of the weak cold front will only
result in increasing cloud cover and should remain dry.

Ridging will build in across western and central NY on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will dive southeast across northeastern
NY and New England, but should remain far enough to our northeast to
keep the North Country dry. Somewhat cooler air will filter in
behind the front which will knock our temperatures down a bit with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with
upper 50s to low 60s east of Lake Ontario. Still a bit above average
for early May.

Surface high pressure slides east of the area while upper level
ridge crests overhead Thursday night. These features will keep our
weather dry with overnight lows ranging through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with
the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers
off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and
upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high
temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s
with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will
bring increasing chances for showers starting late Friday
across far western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper
ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing
off and lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and
Canada, feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the
region than models suggest, which could delay precipitation
chances until Friday night.

Fairly good model consensus brings a trough and weak frontal
boundary slowly across the area Saturday into Saturday night.
This is likely to produce showers as it moves through, but
there will be rain-free time between the showers also. Ample
elevated instability to produce some widely scattered
thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts will generally be less
than a half inch, although locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out. The clouds and showers will lead to cooler weather on
Saturday, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers continue to start the long term period as a trough and
frontal boundaries associated with a sfc low well to the north track
across the area. Showers will taper off late Sunday afternoon from
west to east with just a few lingering light showers and/or
sprinkles for the eastern half of the area during the evening on
Sunday.

Drier period expected later Sunday night into the first half of
Tuesday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the
region.

An occluding low over the north central portion of the CONUS will
stall as its front pushes east toward the region. This will start to
increase shower potential for western and north central NY during
the mid day on Tuesday. Model guidance brings another area of low
pressure north along the frontal boundary, further increasing the
potential for showers and steadier rain across the area. Showers
will then continue through the remainder of the period into at least
the later portion of Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of
the week, with Sunday being the cooler day of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lingering low stratus and fog has retracted over the northern half
of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions for
tonight through Thursday.

A weak cold front will cross the area overnight, possibly producing
a few scattered light showers from the southern Lake Ontario
shoreline to the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) along the
southern flank of the better moisture and lift just ahead of the
boundary as it crosses the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through early Thursday morning with mainly SCT-BKN mid
level decks in the 7-10kft range through the night.

Mainly VFR conditions expected Thursday as high pressure builds in
across the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The
exception will be east of Lake Ontario as winds veer west behind the
boundary possibly advecting lingering low stratus over Lake Ontario
back in across this area for Thursday morning. This may produce VFR
and a few MVFR CIGS across the North Country (KART) for the morning
hours, possibly lingering through midday or so. Daytime heating
should scatter out any leftover low CIGS Thursday afternoon with all
areas VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the remainder of the
week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds
to generally remain below 15 knots. Areas of fog on Lake Ontario
lasting into tonight. While the week will remain quiet, a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JM
SHORT TERM...Apffel/TMA
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ/JM
MARINE...Apffel/JM