330
FXUS62 KCAE 201420
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1020 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday
keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming
temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region
Thursday  and is expected to stall just north of the area
resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridging is beginning to build in from the west,
while surface high pressure extends southwest into the region.
Strong subsidence will prevail through tonight as a result.
Cumulus/stratocumulus will expand in coverage this afternoon
due to daytime heating, and with soundings showing sufficient
moisture for skies to become at least partly cloudy this
afternoon. Clearing should then occur later this evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

As for temperatures, northeast winds at the surface will keep
highs near to slightly below normal today, with lower 80s most
areas. Lows will be slightly below normal due to a dry airmass,
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dominated by surface
high pressure and upper level ridging. This will keep dry air
in the mid and upper levels over the region while at the surface
weak moisture return will begin Wednesday. Pwat values will be
around 0.8 inches Tuesday and increase to around 1.0 inches
Wednesday. With a subsidence inversion and the dry air aloft
continue to expect some vertically limited diurnal cumulus each
day with no showers or thunderstorms. Cumulus which develop will
dissipate with sunset providing partly cloudy days and mostly
clear nights with winds generally around 5 mph each day. With
the upper level ridging and increasing heights temperatures will
be rising each day with highs Tuesday afternoon in the mid 80s
and into the upper 80s Wednesday. Radiational cooling conditions
will be excellent Tuesday night allowing lows to drop into the
upper 50s to around 60 then increasing clouds will limit cooling
Wednesday night yielding lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models have generally remained on track with minor changes this
run which keeps the GFS the more dynamic solution through the
long term with the ECMWF taking a more zonal approach. A cold
front will be moving toward the region Thursday then stall just
north of the area Thursday night and Friday. Southerly flow
Thursday and Friday will keep moisture advecting into the area
with pwats Thursday reaching 1.25 inches and 1.5 inches Friday.
Although moisture will be on the rise with the front struggling
to reach the area a strong trigger mechanism for convection will
be lacking. With the upper level trough flattening in response
to a short wave passing north of the region expect the potential
for other short waves to possibly generate some convection or
even the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours.
Overall the highest potential for convection Thursday and Friday
remains over the northern Midlands and Pee Dee closer to the
frontal boundary. For Saturday and Sunday an upper level short
wave will be crossing the region Saturday with the upper level
pattern returning to more zonal on Sunday. With moisture
remaining above seasonal levels expect chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. High temperatures through the long term
will be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the Period.

Scattered cumulus expected at the terminals through early this
evening, followed by clearing with the loss of daytime heating.
VFR conditions will persist into Monday night. Winds will remain
out of the northeast at 5-10 kt today, becoming light and
variable later this evening and overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated through Wednesday. Low probability of
restrictions during the late week period from afternoon and
evening convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$