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000
FXUS62 KCHS 232320
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
720 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slip down through the region for the
middle part of the week. High pressure builds back through the
region late week through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Conditions are about as quiet as they can
possibly be. Dry high pressure will prevail through the
overnight with mostly clear skies. A few thin cirrus could pass
through at times, with no impact. With the high nearby, winds
will be quite light through the overnight and with clear skies
we should again see good radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures will not be as cool as last night, but should still
be about 5 degrees or so below normal. Look for upper 40s away
from the coast (with a few mid 40s possible across the far
inland tier), ranging to low to mid 50s along the coastal
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure will sag into the southern
Georgia/northern Florida region Wednesday but remain in control
of our weather through the day Wednesday. That will keep things
precip- free once again although we may see some late day
increase in cloud cover as a weak surface boundary approaches
from the NW (see below). South to southwesterly low level flow
will continue our warming trend with afternoon highs into the
upper 70s to lower 80s and close to seasonable normals.

Meanwhile, northern stream short-wave energy will be swinging
through New England through the middle part of the week with
modestly lower mid-level heights dipping into the southeast.
Attending surface low will also be tracking up through New
England during this time with the southern tail end of a cold
front and narrow axis of higher PWAT air (just over one inch)
sagging down through the Carolinas and eastern Georgia through
early Thursday. Larger scale forcing along the boundary looks
very minimal and blended model consensus guidance keeps the
forecast area dry Wednesday night into Thursday. That said,
recent high-res guidance (H3R and NamNest) does show a narrow
line of isolated showers dipping down through the northern part
of the forecast area Wednesday night before dissipating. We are
not totally sold that we will actually get any measurable precip
given stubborn dry low level air. But we have opted to
introduce some low end (isolated) pops to the northern portion
of the forecast area...mainly the Charleston "quad-county"
region.

Heading into the latter half of the week, aforementioned
boundary and higher PWAT air may be stalling across the southern
Georgia/northern Florida region as northeasterly flow becomes
re-established across the forecast area. While we cannot
completely rule out a low- end chance of a few showers/sprinkles
either along the moisture axis or coming off the Atlantic,
current plan is to maintain a dry forecast through the latter
half of the week. Temperatures may dip back a few degrees into
the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level flow is looking to become a bit more amplified late
week and through the upcoming weekend with deepening
troughiness developing through the western CONUS and downstream
sharp ridging setting up along much of the east coast. Surface
high pressure will regain a foothold throughout much of the
eastern U.S. and will maintain dry weather through the period.
Temperatures will continue to run near or around normal late
week into the weekend, and further to above normal late weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z
Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered over the coastal waters today
will slide slowly east over the western Atlantic tonight. To the
west, a cold front is expected to reach the southern
Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. This pattern should support
SSW winds across the coastal waters tonight, favoring values
between 10-15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 2-4 ft
tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: South to southwesterly flow is
anticipated Wednesday with a touch of gustiness possible
although winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds. Winds veer northeasterly/easterly for the latter
half of the week, as a weak cold front slips through the region
and stalls to our south. Again, some gustiness is possible
across the coastal waters, especially on Friday, but expected to
remain below SCA criteria. High pressure returns thereafter.

Rip Currents: Winds veer southerly Wednesday. However,
lingering 10 second swell and proximity to the full moon will
keep an elevated risk of rip currents at all beaches through
Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will continue to undergo maintenance. The radar
will be offline while maintenance is ongoing and is tentatively
scheduled to return to service on Friday (4/26).

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...BSH/Adam
MARINE...NED/Adam