186
FXUS61 KCLE 031955
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern continues as a cold front moves east across
the area tonight. Another warm front will lift north on Saturday
followed by a cold front on Sunday as the parent low moves
northeast into Quebec. High pressure will push in briefly
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An active weather pattern will continue through the near term
period as multiple boundaries enhanced by upper level shortwaves
move across the area. Setting up the big picture, there is a
broad upper level trough across the northern contiguous US with
an associated low pressure at the surface centered over the
north-central US. A cold front associated with this system will
move east across the area tonight, bringing another chance of
precipitation. Much of the support for shower development is
coming from upper level embedded shortwaves which are advecting
vorticity across the area. This support coupled with an area of
low level convergence should allow for more widespread showers
to become established along and east of I71 this evening into
the overnight hours. Overall mesoscale conditions, including
instability and shear, remain very minimal this afternoon so
getting any thunder may be hard but cannot rule out a few
rumbles. Primary concern would be heavy rainfall in the
strongest showers which may result in nuisance flooding.

By Saturday morning, a nose of high pressure pushes over the
area and allows for a very brief, although cloudy, period of no
precipitation. By Saturday afternoon, another warm front will
move north across the area, allowing the chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms to return. These should gradually begin
to taper from west to east early Sunday as another cold front
approaches, but maintained slight chance for this period.

Highs tomorrow will reach into the 70s across western counties,
but will remain in the 60s for far NE OH and NW PA. Overnight
lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will likely be approaching Toledo early Sunday and will
slowly cross the area from west to east by Sunday evening. A slug of
deeper moisture and associated showers may still be impacting far
eastern OH into northwestern PA early Sunday, though farther west
should start the day fairly dry. Additional showers & thunder are
expected to develop along the cold front by late morning or early
afternoon is it drifts east out of northwestern Ohio and into north
central Ohio and then continue east through the afternoon and early
evening. Overall, Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with
showers and thunder around at times, though a washout type steady
rain is unlikely. Not seeing much of a severe weather threat on
Sunday, as forcing and shear will be weak. Thermodynamics may
support a few stronger storms east/southeast of a Mount Gilead -
Parma - Chardon - Edinboro line during the later afternoon hours,
with small to perhaps near-severe hail and locally strong winds the
main concern if any storms briefly pulse stronger before collapsing
due to the lack of stronger shear. Storm motion won`t be all that
fast so can`t rule out a gully-washer or two, though am not
expecting enough organization for much of a flooding threat either.

High pressure briefly noses in from the north Sunday night into
Monday behind the cold front, which should allow us to dry out. As
the front begins returning as a warm front late Monday into Monday
night rain chances may begin returning from the southwest. Gut
feeling is that Monday and Monday night may end up drier than
currently forecasted, though given enough model spread and a need to
be collaborated, only made modest reductions to the NBM POPs.

Highs on Sunday will hinge on how long we can break into some
sunshine behind showers exiting to the east in the morning and
activity developing and spreading across the area along the cold
front during the midday and afternoon timeframe. For now, generally
have most of the area in the 70s. Highs generally range from the mid
60s along the lake to the low to mid 70s well-inland on Monday. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will generally settle into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will begin with a trough over the northern Plains and
a ridge centered over the Southeast, with broad southwest flow in
between. The trough will begin shifting towards the Midwest and
Great Lakes by Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through on
Tuesday, with a cold front expected to cross Thursday into Friday.
There will be relatively higher chances for showers and thunder both
with the warm frontal passage Tuesday into Tuesday evening, and
again Thursday into Friday as the cold approaches and crosses. While
we`ll be in the open warm sector on Wednesday, activity may develop
upstream and spread in later in the day or at night. Severe weather
and flooding potential are uncertain, as we will be on the fringes
of a moist and unstable with enough flow aloft for organized
convection. However, many solutions develop organized clusters of
convection well upstream across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
most days, which would tend to track just to our south and also act
to overturn the greater instability before it can advect in. We are
not currently "outlooked" for severe weather by the SPC which seems
reasonable given the uncertainty and potential limiting factors
mentioned above, though experimental machine learning severe weather
guidance from Colorado State University does suggest severe
potential may bleed into our area (with greater risk just to our
southwest) if upstream convection is not too expansive. Temperatures
will lean warmer than normal until the cold front crosses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue ahead of the approaching
cold front through the first part of tonight. There is currently
an area of light rain showers moving east across the area, but
no thunder has been reported and visibilities have remained
near 10SM. There remains a potential of scattered thunderstorms
late this afternoon into the evening hours as an upper level
shortwave enhancing lift over the area. With low confidence in
the placement of these thunderstorms, opted to handle them with
a TEMPO beginning at 21Z for KTOL and gradually push east. In
the strongest storms, visibilities and ceilings may briefly fall
to MVFR conditions, but should quickly rebound.

Overnight tonight, the aforementioned pushes east, allow for
much of the area to briefly experience dry conditions. Behind
this boundary, ceilings will lower to MVFR heights and should
persist for most sites through the end of the period. A chance
of showers returns Saturday afternoon.

Variable winds of 4-6 knots will persist across the area until
Saturday morning when they become sustained at 5-10 knots from
the southeast. The exception will be KTOL which will have a 5-10
knots wind from the northeast. Isolated gusts are possible near
the end of the period for KERI due to downslope enhancement.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected for the foreseeable future.
Southeast winds may briefly become gusty in the nearshore waters off
of Pennsylvania late Saturday night into early Sunday morning,
though sustained winds likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. A cold front will cross on Sunday. A warm front lifts
across the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold front
next Thursday or Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible over the
lake Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, though greater potential will likely be
inland. Additional thunderstorms are possible at times over the lake
Tuesday through Friday next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sullivan