Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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207 FXUS64 KCRP 100825 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 325 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Cold front to move across the region today Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT`s from the latest sounding are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP`s in the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region. Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts daily. The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears the region. By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate heat risk for much of South Texas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The transition from VFR to predominate MVFR will continue tonight. Continue to expect IFR/LIFR conditions near the VCT/ALI terminals approximately during the 09-13z Friday period. Expect predominate MVFR conditions during the mid/late morning hours Friday, followed by predominate VFR by afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near the COT/LRD terminals late Friday afternoon/early evening. Wind becoming light/variable overnight. Continue to expect a transition, from north to south, to moderate northeast/east flow Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow toward the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Weak onshore flow will continue through this evening, then shift northeasterly Friday morning as a weak cold front approaches the waters. East-northeasterly flow strengthens to moderate Friday afternoon and continues into Friday night. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. Moderate flow will shift back southeasterly by Sunday, becoming weak to moderate by Monday morning. A low chance of showers and storms on Saturday increases to a low to medium chance Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 90 70 86 72 / 10 10 10 20 Laredo 97 75 90 76 / 10 20 20 30 Alice 93 73 86 74 / 10 10 20 20 Rockport 89 75 85 76 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 92 75 87 75 / 10 10 20 30 Kingsville 91 74 85 75 / 10 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 88 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....TC/95 AVIATION...WC