Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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959 FXUS63 KDDC 100700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and mild end to the workweek across southwest Kansas. - Forecast trend is becoming more favorable for a wet weather pattern this weekend and next week. - Probabilities of 0.5 inch of rain or more from late Saturday through mid Monday are increasing. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 06Z surface observations and RAP upper air analysis has a large upper low centered in Utah with west to southwest winds aloft moving through the central plains. An area of PVA and 700 mb shortwave has led to some light rain showers mainly in eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. As the rain moves east with lesser moisture at the surface we are just seeing a band of mid level clouds moving into far western Kansas. Boundary layer winds continue out of the north to northeast as a surface high in central Wyoming and the clockwise flow around it is keeping the winds northerly. For today the surface high will slide into eastern Colorado and this will lead to generally light north winds. Periods of mid to high level clouds will move across southwest Kansas as we should see some weak PVA and 700 mb lift across eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Highs will reach into the 70s. Tonight we shouldn`t see much movement with the upper low as it will still be around the Utah-Arizona border. However southwest winds at 500-700 mb and winds turning east to southeast in west Texas will increase the moisture and upslope flow that we should start to see a band of light rain develop in these regions. Overall Kansas should stay dry as the winds will stay northerly and the bulk of the higher surface moisture will stay to the south. Clouds will be on the increase during the overnight hours and we should see overcast skies in far southwest Kansas by morning. Saturday should start out dry and the latest trends in the short and medium time framed models have the 700 mb low and increasing moisture reaching far southwest Kansas after the noon hour. POPs should increase after 18Z and by 21Z we will have 40-50% POPs for areas from Liberal to Syracuse on west. Low amounts of CAPE will negate any severe threat but there will be enough energy for a few embedded thunderstorms. We could see rainfall totals approaching 0.10 inch in the far southwest by sunset as Euro and GEFS ensembles have 40-70% probabilities of 0.10 inch at Elkhart by 00Z. More details on the widespread rain event for southwest Kansas will be detailed in the long term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level low will spin above the four corners region through Saturday then trek eastward over the area Sunday into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Ensembles show probabilities of over a 50 percent chance of a quarter of an inch or more across the eastern half of the CWA Saturday night through Monday morning. Temperatures throughout the long term will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Near 100% probability of VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A band of mid level clouds will lower ceilings to around 15 kft through the overnight and mid morning hours. Winds in general will be 5-12 kts sustained with a few gusts as high as 15 kts in the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Tatro