444
FNUS73 KDMX 011828
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Colwell...RES - p/ Iowa NRCS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
128 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each
prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny skies to continue to drop RH values to near 30% this
afternoon, but clouds will fill in gradually. Northwest winds to
become light and northerly for a few hours beginning at 4pm, then
becoming easterly after sunset. Rain anticipated to arrive near
the burn site after 7pm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  63  56  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  66  66  67
RH..............37  37  38  39
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..14  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.20  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.2 3.1 2.6
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  15  14  13
GFDI............1   1   1   1
Haines index....5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100048  41  37  28

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms early
                    in the evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms
                    likely overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 7 mph shifting to the east
                    14 to 15 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 9 to 16
                    mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    increasing to 18 to 22 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........69     61     75     77     85     88
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Temp............67     61     55     53     52     51
RH..............40     53     66     74     77     83
20 ft wind......N 7    NE 7   E 8    E 10   E 13   E 14
20 ft wind gust.12     10     12     14     18     21
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   500    500    500    700    800
Transport wind..N 8    NE 6   E 9    E 13   E 16   E 18
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100011     2      4      6      10     13

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    south 15 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 30 mph shifting to the south 18
                    to 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........91        96        95        94
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    LIKELY    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........DEFNTE    DEFNTE    LIKELY    CHANCE
Temp............52        52        58        62
RH..............80        93        90        90
20 FT wind......E 17G25   E 20G28   SE 18G26  S 17G25
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      1300      1300      1200
Transport wind..E 22      SE 26     SE 29     S 23
GFDI............1         1         1         1
Haines index....4         2         2         3
SDspl kt-ft/100018        30        32        23

$$
Forecaster...Jimenez
Requested by...Danny Simcox
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412929.1/DMX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dsimcox@res.us