396
FXUS63 KDVN 151021
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
521 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few storms late tonight and Thursday.

- Highs into the 80s for several days ahead.

- Wet pattern next week with several rounds of heavy rain
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today: Fantastic day in store with high pressure surface and
aloft settling across the forecast area. Plenty of sunshine and
rather light northeast to east winds should allow for afternoon
high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Great day to be
outdoors if you can!

Tonight: The high slips off to our east followed by a weak short
wave that arrives after midnight. This should bring a chance of
showers and perhaps isolated storms to our western counties
after midnight. Lows will range from around 50 in nw IL to the
mid to upper 50s in our west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Thursday: The short wave will continue to spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Pops will be
in the 40-60 percent range. Not expecting severe storms due to
weak shear and marginal instability. A few locations may pick up
1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain but most less than that. Highs will be
in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday through Sunday: A warm and mainly dry stretch of weather
during this time-frame. A seasonably strong low pressure system
will be tracking from the northern Rockies to western Ontario
which will pull warm air northward into our area. Highs should
push into the 80s. Forcing appears to be quite weak so little if
any rain is expected.

Next week: A much more active pattern with a zonal flow and
periodic MCS`s riding along in this flow. The heat will be
building in the southern states, while much cooler airmass will
be across the northern tier of the United States. This puts the
battleground of these airmasses right over the Corn Belt. While
it is too early to determine the severe weather threat or rain
amounts, CPC has much of the area in a SLGT risk for heavy rain
especially May 22-25. Stay tuned! Highs will continue to be well
into the 70s to around 80 for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conds (mainly SKC) through this taf cycle as a ridge of
high pressure, surface and aloft, settles across the area.
Northeast winds around 10 kts or less becoming east to southeast
by this evening.

There is a chance for a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm after
midnight at KCID but confidence too low to mention as of now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The heavier rainfall overnight was mainly south of I-80 and I-88
with some pockets of lighter amounts south of Moline towards Macomb
as well as in parts of NW MO. The higher totals of 0.75 to 1.5
inches were near and south of Iowa City. To the north, amounts were
mostly under a tenth of an inch.

The flood warning continues for the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt.
It is forecast to have a broad crest near 11.3 feet over the next 36
hours.

There was not much appreciable rainfall upstream of Conesville. The
RFC has the Cedar River at Conesville cresting under flood stage
tomorrow.  The flood watch has been canceled.

The Mississippi River may go over flood stage at Gladstone and
Burlington tomorrow or on Thursday. The flood watches for these
sites continue due to some uncertainty with the pockets of lighter
rainfall that fell overnight and relatively light totals forecast
for today. Will monitor river levels for now.  The current forecasts
take them both just one tenth of a foot over flood stage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase
HYDROLOGY...14