Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
728 FXUS66 KEKA 081134 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 434 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A building expansive Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and strengthening N to NE winds. This combination of elements will allow for unseasonably warm and possibly record high temperatures closer to the coast and in the interior valleys. && .DISCUSSION...A strong, Pacific ridge is amplifying over the region, and this strengthening will continue through late in the week. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today than yesterday. Similarly to Tuesday, northerly winds will be increasing today, and by the afternoon, gusts of 25 to over 30 mph are forecast for the exposed coastal areas. Interior ridgetop northeasterly winds will remain strong, including gusts in excess of 60 mph. The Wind Advisory has been extended and expanded to cover the higher terrain in southern Trinity County and southward through far east Mendocino County, and good coverage over portions of Lake County through Thursday morning. An upper trough will begin to cut off and retrograde west into the Great Basin today. This will strengthen offshore winds on Thursday/Friday when the warmest temperatures are expected to the coast. Ensembles guidance holds near record to record highs in the mid to upper 70s to the coast Thursday and likely Friday. Interior valleys will rise to the upper 80s to low 90s. Given the setup and models` difficult ability to resolve the far westward push of warmth from the offshore winds, continued to lean toward the 75th percentile of NBM on Thursday and Friday for coastal highs when the most pronounced offshore flow will develop and a thermal trough pushes offshore. This will be quite a swing from the below average temperatures of recent days, allowing little time for acclimation. Ensembles generally hold the ridge into next week, with varying phases of amplification. Mid-level moisture looks to work its way over the interior mountains by Sunday and especially Monday, introducing the chance for interior mountain thunderstorms. /JJW && .AVIATION...Northerly winds will be the main concern for area terminals throughout the TAF period. As a ridge continues to strengthen in the Northeast Pacific, northerly winds will build into this afternoon, especially for the coastal terminals where gusts to 30 knots should be expected. In general, VFR conditions should be expected for most all terminals, as the winds will keep extensive stratus from forming. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities continue to be possible into the early morning down the Eel River Valley. Before the winds pick up this morning and then after they calm into late tonight, LLWS could be a concern for a short amount of time. && .MARINE...A northerly wind regime will become strong and dominant as synoptic ridging sets up over the Western US. Gusts have increased to gale force throughout all zones. These northerly gales are expected to last through Thursday. Gusts above 35 kts in all area waters are forecast with some gusts in the northern outer waters reaching 45 kts by late tonight. Wind waves out of the NW will be steep at 9 to 10 feet in height and as many seconds in period. Seas are anticipated to peak over 15 ft at 10-11 seconds out of the north by tonight. The thermal trough will build toward the coast late in the week resulting in a weakening pressure gradient over the waters and likely some weak southerly return flow near the immediate coast && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ102- 105>108-110-111-114. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ108-111. Wind Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455-470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png