004
AXPZ20 KNHC 030232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N83W to 05N99W, then
resumes near 12N98W to 05N121W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N121W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
12N between 106W-120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters
of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Recent scatterometer
satellite passes indicate moderate northerly winds persist off
Baja California. Altimeter data indicated combined seas of 8 to
10 ft, mainly beyond 90 nm offshore and reaching as far south as
almost off Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds persist
elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate
combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and
seas will begin to diminish off Baja California this weekend as
the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California
Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon.
Another round of large NW swell may follow the front.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture
continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms
over off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Overnight scatterometer
satellite passes showed gentle to moderate southerly winds over
much of the area. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week,
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern
California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh N
winds north of 28N and east of 130W, as noted in recent
scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found in
the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ and west of 130W.
Northerly swell support seas of 8-9 ft north of the ITCZ and
west of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change is expected to occur to the
overall weather pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds
and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure
north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front.
The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually
weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N
through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell of 8-9 ft will get
almost as far north as the equator between 110W and 120W Sat
into Sun, before subsiding.

$$
ERA