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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090810
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 09 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over northwest
Colombia, westward to the coast of Panama near 08N78W and
continues to 08N91W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N106W to
04N120W to 05N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Increasing clusters
of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm
north of the ITCZ between 95W and 100W and within 150 nm south
of the ITCZ between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 91W
and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of
the ITCZ between 121W and 125W, also within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 91W and 94W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
102W and 107W, within 30 nm north of trough between 82W and 85W
and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 107W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Fresh
to strong northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters
of Baja California from 23N to 25N and west to near 115W. Seas
with these winds have subsided slightly to 8 to 9 ft. Fresh
northwest to north are over the offshore waters of Baja
California north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft
due to long-period northwest swell. In the Gulf of California,
northwest to north gentle to moderate winds are over the
southern part while fresh west to northwest winds are over the
central part and moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are
over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft are over
the northern and southern sections and 4 to 6 ft seas are over
the central section. Light to gentle west to northwest winds are
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of
4 to 6 ft due to a mixture of long-period southwest and
northwest swell. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over the waters surrounding
the Revillagigedo Islands due to NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California for the next few days. Fresh to strong northwest winds
offshore Baja California will diminish to mostly moderate speeds
on Tue. The northwest swell producing seas of 8 to 10 ft north
of 25N will slowly subside today into this evening. In the Gulf
of California, winds will generally become light and variable on
Thu throughout. On Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf
are forecast to become fresh in speeds, south to southwest in
direction, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night
prior to the approach of a cold front. Gentle to locally
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate
seas. Looking ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will
likely persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around
16 ft with this upcoming event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and
west from there to near 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds.
Gentle to moderate north winds are south of the Gulf of Panama
west of 79W and light variable winds are east of 79W. Generally
light to gentle southwest to west winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4
to 6 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell, except
for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters between
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Winds and seas
may be higher in and near this activity as it is expected to
stay active today through late on Wed. Hazy conditions observed
along and just offshore northern Central America, northward of
northern Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced by
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate early this afternoon
and to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period south to
southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. Looking
ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds, with
seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on Fri.
These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into early
Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in the
Gulf of Panama with seas likely building up to 7 ft. Abundant
moisture drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind
flow is expected to persist across the offshore waters of Costa
Rica, Panama and Colombia supporting the development of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over those waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb that is analyzed well to the northeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the
weather pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of
about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds
mainly from about from 09N to 20N west of about 130W and from
07N to 15N between 120W and 130W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these
winds based on the latest altimeter satellite data passed and on
a couple of ship observations. Mostly fresh northeast winds
along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain
in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north
of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The
high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts
eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trade
winds over the central and western waters will gradually diminish
in areal coverage. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the
far northwest waters on Fri.

$$
Aguirre