899
FXUS64 KEPZ 302027
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Warm and breezy conditions will continue for the next seven days.
Winds will be breeziest for Wednesday and then again Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Zonal flow continues across the Desert SW, which is keeping us
warm and modestly breezy this afternoon. An U/L trough will
sharpen for Wednesday with its parent low across far Southern
Canada. This position places the main jet stream well to our
north. We will have a lee low that forms over NE NM / far SW CO to
help pack surface pressure gradients, but wind will be mainly
forced at the lower levels. Thus, it will be breezy but not
particularly notable. The main impact will be a few areas of dust
and elevated fire danger.

Flow becomes quasi-zonal in the wake of Wednesday`s system. A
trough axis hangs up to our west, which will gradually sharpen as
a large UL drops down the West Coast toward this weekend, making
our flow more SW`LY. The UL pattern will not have much impact on
our weather through Saturday, but winds will begin to increase for
next Sunday and Monday as the trough approaches and then passes on
Monday. Euro is farther north and weaker with Monday`s passage
than the GFS, but examining NBM probabilities, odds favor a
solution more in line with the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected with SKC-FEW250. West to southwesterly
winds (200-250) will increase to around 10 knots with occasional
gusts to 20 knots. Winds subside after dark but will increase
again toward the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Very dry air is expected to remain in place through the entire
period with afternoon min RH values ranging 5 to 10 percent in all
but the highest elevations. 20-foot winds will top out 15 to 20
MPH during the afternoon placing the area in ELEVATED to NEAR
CRITICAL conditions. Winds have decreased slightly since
yesterday`s forecast update, so will continue with the special
weather statement rather than a red flag warning.

Winds will subside some for Thursday and then even further for
Friday. Winds will begin to increase for Sunday and Monday. It is
a bit early, but present forecast shows critical fire concerns
return on Monday to much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  88  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               53  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  63  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  76  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  86  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                49  89  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  85  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  87  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  84  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  73  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                49  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  84  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  76  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   45  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  82  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   49  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  83  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown